Long-term predictions of COVID-19 waves in China based on an improved SEIRS-Q model of antibody failure.

IF 1.4 4区医学 Q4 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Journal of Infection in Developing Countries Pub Date : 2025-01-31 DOI:10.3855/jidc.19058

Mengxuan Lin, Pengyuan Nie, Qunjiao Yan, Xinying Du, Jinquan Chen, Yaqing Jin, Ligui Wang, Lei Wang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Introduction: China had already experienced two COVID-19 epidemics since the promulgation of 10 new prevention and control measures in December 2022.

Methodology: In response to the current frequent epidemics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variants in China and the gradual relaxation of prevention and control policies, we built and ran a susceptible-exposed-infective-removed-susceptible-quarantined model incorporating self-isolation to predict future cases of COVID-19.

Results: Four waves of outbreaks were predicted to occur in November 2023, and in April, July, and November 2024. The first two waves were predicted to be more severe, with the maximum number of infected cases reaching 18.97% (269 million) and 8.77% (124 million) of the country's population, respectively, while the rest were predicted to affect a maximum of < 3%.

Conclusions: Future outbreaks are expected to occur at shorter intervals but last for longer durations. COVID-19 epidemics in China are expected to subside after November 2024.

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来源期刊

Journal of Infection in Developing Countries INFECTIOUS DISEASES-

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

5.30%

发文量

239

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： The Journal of Infection in Developing Countries (JIDC) is an international journal, intended for the publication of scientific articles from Developing Countries by scientists from Developing Countries. JIDC is an independent, on-line publication with an international editorial board. JIDC is open access with no cost to view or download articles and reasonable cost for publication of research artcles, making JIDC easily availiable to scientists from resource restricted regions.