Long-term predictions of COVID-19 waves in China based on an improved SEIRS-Q model of antibody failure.

IF 1.4 4区医学 Q4 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Journal of Infection in Developing Countries Pub Date : 2025-01-31 DOI:10.3855/jidc.19058

Mengxuan Lin, Pengyuan Nie, Qunjiao Yan, Xinying Du, Jinquan Chen, Yaqing Jin, Ligui Wang, Lei Wang

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Abstract

Introduction: China had already experienced two COVID-19 epidemics since the promulgation of 10 new prevention and control measures in December 2022.

Methodology: In response to the current frequent epidemics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variants in China and the gradual relaxation of prevention and control policies, we built and ran a susceptible-exposed-infective-removed-susceptible-quarantined model incorporating self-isolation to predict future cases of COVID-19.

Results: Four waves of outbreaks were predicted to occur in November 2023, and in April, July, and November 2024. The first two waves were predicted to be more severe, with the maximum number of infected cases reaching 18.97% (269 million) and 8.77% (124 million) of the country's population, respectively, while the rest were predicted to affect a maximum of < 3%.

Conclusions: Future outbreaks are expected to occur at shorter intervals but last for longer durations. COVID-19 epidemics in China are expected to subside after November 2024.

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基于改进SEIRS-Q抗体失效模型的中国新冠肺炎疫情长期预测

导语：自2022年12月出台10项新的防控措施以来，中国已经经历了两次新冠肺炎疫情。方法：针对当前中国严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2型变异频繁流行和防控政策逐步放松的情况，建立并运行了纳入自我隔离的易感者-暴露-感染移除-易感者-隔离模型，以预测未来的COVID-19病例。结果：预测2023年11月、2024年4月、7月、11月发生4波疫情。预计前两波疫情更为严重，感染人数最多分别达到全国人口的18.97%（2.69亿）和8.77%（1.24亿），而其余疫情预计受影响人数最多不超过3%。结论：预计未来疫情的爆发间隔较短，但持续时间较长。预计2024年11月以后，中国的新冠肺炎疫情将逐渐消退。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Infection in Developing Countries INFECTIOUS DISEASES-

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

5.30%

发文量

239

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： The Journal of Infection in Developing Countries (JIDC) is an international journal, intended for the publication of scientific articles from Developing Countries by scientists from Developing Countries. JIDC is an independent, on-line publication with an international editorial board. JIDC is open access with no cost to view or download articles and reasonable cost for publication of research artcles, making JIDC easily availiable to scientists from resource restricted regions.