Approaching building lifetimes and hazard rates through demolition patterns: Case studies for a historical city center

Abstract

Despite their relevance in building stock modeling, building lifetimes are poorly understood and tend to form the weakest link in forecasting energy use, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, waste generation, and resource use. Here, we develop a methodology to trace building lifetimes for cohorts in two central areas built up after fires in the 1840s. Using Geographical Information System (GIS) data of the current building stock and archival material, we determined yearly hazard rates for buildings within the cohort 1841–1845 in the historical center of Trondheim, Norway. We find that hazard rates are very sensitive to events ranging from global to hyperlocal scales and that demolition rates have slowed down significantly since the 1980s when municipal preservation policies came into effect. In contrast, age-based lifetime approaches fail to capture the effects of such events as they only account for the delay between construction and demolition. We discuss the use and limitations of hazard rates to better reflect changes in demolition that are not correlated with building age. Our study underscores that building lifetimes are a property of a wider system rather than an attribute of individual structures. In that sense, hazard rates are a more suitable approach to capture spatiotemporal changes of building stocks and could be further used in scenarios in dynamic models. This article met the requirements for a gold-gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges.