Can circular economy strategies address resource constraints for lithium-ion batteries? A comprehensive dynamic material flow analysis of lithium flows in China's battery sector

Abstract

The low-carbon transition requires widespread adoption of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), which rely on critical raw materials. Lithium (Li) demand is expected to increase 10-fold by 2050 globally, raising concerns over the sustainability of future supply. As one of the world's largest producers and consumers of LIBs, China's role is pivotal in addressing resource constraints, enhancing circularity, and enabling global climate commitments. This paper uses a dynamic material flow analysis model to trace Li flows and stocks in China's LIBs system, taking 2021 as the base year and designing scenarios to 2050 to assess the potential role of circular economy (CE) strategies in addressing primary lithium constraints. While previous studies have concentrated on electric vehicle (EVs) LIBs, this research provides more comprehensive coverage of Li chemicals and products, assesses future Li demand considering saturation curves across different applications/groups, and provides a broader overview of policy interventions to align with CE strategies. Results illustrate that Li cumulative demand in China's LIBs sector is expected to reach 6.65 Mt from 2022 to 2050 under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. In parallel, there is a significant potential for addressing primary Li constraints through different combinations of circularity strategies, with a reduction of 60%–100% by 2050 compared to the BAU. The contribution of recycled Li is highly dependent on the strategies adopted to optimize end-of-life (EOL) LIBs management and battery chemistry innovation. Policies to address this are discussed including waste regulatory instruments, new remanufacturing business models, and continuous support to research and development activities to help close the loop of lithium and ease Li constraints.