Reducing material use and their greenhouse gas emissions in Greater Oslo

Abstract

Resource efficiency strategies are key to reduce material use and help limit global warming to below 2°C in 2100. Understanding the role of such strategies at the municipal level requires a localized approach. Here we evaluate a ramp-up of resource efficiency strategies and their associated effects on car use and climate benefits toward 2050 for 19 individual subregions within the Greater Oslo region in Norway. In our scenarios, material stocks increase from 356 megatonnes (Mt) in 2022 to 361–381 Mt in 2050 driven by population growth, with low-end estimate relying on a sufficiency (SUF) scenario limiting floor area per capita and banning new single-family houses. The SUF scenario reduces total material consumption until 2050 (50.5 Mt) with 28% relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario (70.8 Mt) with continuation of ongoing trends, thereby reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from material production by 21% (BAU: 11.8 MtCO₂-eq, SUF: 9.4 MtCO₂-eq). If resource efficiency strategies are combined with material production decarbonization in-line with a 2°C scenario, a 35% reduction in emissions is achievable (7.7 MtCO₂-eq). Car ownership rates and traveled distance per capita decrease in the SUF scenario compared to 2022 with 11%. Assuming the current relationship between settlement characteristics and transport demand, total driving distance fails to decline due to population growth. Limiting the floor-area per capita in residential buildings significantly decreases material demand. Resource efficiency strategies including densification need to be complemented with a rapid decarbonization of material supply and stronger incentives to move away from car driving to maximize climate change mitigation. This article met the requirements for a gold-gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges.