Modeling residents’ long-term adaptation to geohazards in mountainous regions using agent-based models and Bayesian networks

Abstract

In mountainous settlements threatened by geohazards, various adaptive behaviors undertaken by residents to cope with long-term geohazard risk exhibit characteristics of bounded rationality. The spatiotemporal characterization of such collective adaptive behaviors offers significant insights into settlement evolution. Considering a geohazard-prone mountainous region in China as an example, we employ face-to-face questionnaire surveys and spatial data mining to investigate residents' long-term adaptive behaviors to geohazards. We constructed a comprehensive simulation model that integrates an agent-based model (ABM), geographic information systems, and a Bayesian networks (BN). This model meticulously simulates the decision-making processes of residents, influenced by policies, social dynamics, and environmental factors. A notable innovation in our study is the introduction of peer effects into the simulation model, a novel approach that reflects the interdependent and imitative nature of residents' adaptation processes. We also consider multiple scenario combinations to analyze behavioral patterns and collective emergence phenomena under different disaster shocks. The findings indicate that an increase in disaster occurrence probability prompts more residents to relocate to safer areas and heightens their disaster preparedness awareness. Moreover, our results show that different scenarios significantly affect residents' behavioral choices and sensibilities; interventions such as mandatory relocation and disaster subsidy policies can alter residents' adaptation strategies. The developed model offers a novel perspective and empirical foundation for geohazard risk management. This study elucidates the long-term evolutionary patterns of settlement aggregation and the phenomenon of collective emergence, thereby addressing the gap in simulating residents’ adaptive behaviors under the prolonged impact of geohazards.