Adapting to a shifting planet: The future of Drosera species amidst global challenges and conservation imperatives

Abstract

This study assesses the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of the Drosera genus, which is a carnivorous plant group widely distributed in South America. The Drosera species act as adequate biological indicators, with their fitness performance reflecting the health of ecosystems. Through the application of species distribution models and the analysis of bioclimatic variables, the adaptability of 39 Drosera species to evolving climatic conditions was assessed, revealing their capacity to thrive in diverse habitats, from nutrient-deficient soils to regions with high atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. While many species show adaptability, environmental forecasts using two General Circulation Models indicate a decrease in favorable habitats by 2050 and 2070. It is expected that about 71.79 % of species will encounter shrinking habitat suitability, while 28.21 % may see an increase in habitat suitability. This anticipated habitat loss underscores the critical need for proactive conservation measures, including habitat preservation, ecological restoration, assisted migration, and genetic conservation efforts, to counteract the adverse effects of climate change. Additionally, the study highlights the importance of refining species distribution models and deepening our understanding of the ecological dynamics of Drosera species in response to environmental changes. By offering insights into the challenges and opportunities for conserving Drosera species in a changing climate, this work lays a solid groundwork for future ecological research and conservation initiatives. It calls for an integrated approach that combines scientific inquiry with strategic conservation actions to ensure the survival of these unique plant group and ecological integrity during global environmental shifts.