Modeling-based design of adaptive control strategy for the effective preparation of 'Disease X'.

IF 3.3 3区 医学 Q2 MEDICAL INFORMATICS
Hao Wang, Weike Zhou, Xia Wang, Yanni Xiao, Sanyi Tang, Biao Tang
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Abstract

This study aims at exploring a general and adaptive control strategy to confront the rapid evolution of an emerging infectious disease ('Disease X'), drawing lessons from the management of COVID-19 in China. We employ a dynamic model incorporating age structures and vaccination statuses, which is calibrated using epidemic data. We therefore estimate the cumulative infection rate (CIR) during the first epidemic wave of Omicron variant after China relaxed its zero-COVID policy to be 82.9% (95% CI: 82.3%, 83.5%), with a case fatality rate (CFR) of 0.25% (95% CI: 0.248%, 0.253%). We further show that if the zero-COVID policy had been eased in January 2022, the CIR and CFR would have decreased to 81.64% and 0.205%, respectively, due to a higher level of immunity from vaccination. However, if we ease the zero-COVID policy during the circulation of Delta variant from June 2021, the CIR would decrease to 74.06% while the CFR would significantly increase to 1.065%. Therefore, in the face of a 'Disease X', the adaptive strategies should be guided by multiple factors, the 'zero-COVID-like' policy could be a feasible and effective way for the control of a variant with relative low transmissibility. However, we should ease the strategy as the virus matures into a new variant with much higher transmissibility, particularly when the population is at a high level of immunity.

基于模型的自适应控制策略设计,有效预防“X病”。
本研究旨在探索一种通用的适应性控制策略,以应对新发传染病(“疾病X”)的快速演变,借鉴中国COVID-19管理的经验。我们采用了一个结合年龄结构和疫苗接种状况的动态模型,该模型使用流行病数据进行校准。因此,我们估计中国放宽零covid政策后第一波欧米克隆变异流行期间的累积感染率(CIR)为82.9% (95% CI: 82.3%, 83.5%),病死率(CFR)为0.25% (95% CI: 0.248%, 0.253%)。我们进一步表明,如果在2022年1月放松零covid政策,由于疫苗接种的免疫水平提高,CIR和CFR将分别降至81.64%和0.205%。但是,如果从2021年6月开始放宽Delta型病毒流通期间的零冠政策,则CIR将降至74.06%,而CFR将大幅上升至1.065%。因此,面对“X病”,适应策略应以多种因素为指导,“零样冠状病毒”政策可能是控制传染性相对较低的变异的可行有效途径。然而,随着病毒成熟为具有更高传播性的新变种,特别是当人群处于高免疫水平时,我们应该放松这一策略。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.20
自引率
5.70%
发文量
297
审稿时长
1 months
期刊介绍: BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making is an open access journal publishing original peer-reviewed research articles in relation to the design, development, implementation, use, and evaluation of health information technologies and decision-making for human health.
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