Quantifying Biodiversity's Present and Future: Current Potentials and SSP-RCP-Driven Land Use Impacts

Abstract

Biodiversity, vital for ecosystem stability and human well-being, faces threats from land use and climate change. Accurately predicting these effects is crucial for effective conservation. High emission development scenario is commonly viewed as the most detrimental to biodiversity. However, recent researches suggest a more complex relationship between development paths and biodiversity outcomes. Our study addresses this by using an emergy-based approach to estimate current provincial-level biodiversity potential and project future species richness losses (amphibians, mammals, and birds) across climate zones and provincial divisions under various SSP-RCP scenarios for 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090. The results revealed significant regional variations in China's biodiversity potential, with the highest in southwestern provinces. Future land use trends indicate increased construction land and barren alongside a decline in grasslands, leading to considerable habitat loss and fragmentation under various scenarios, stressing conservation needs. Future biodiversity loss follows the Hu line and climate zones, with significant decreases in the south and humid regions. Land-use changes could reduce species richness by 1–6 per 10 km grid cell. High-emission scenario SSP585 do not necessarily have the most detrimental effects on biodiversity and different scenarios require targeted focus on specific climatic zones and provinces. These findings underscore that different scenarios require targeted conservation efforts in specific regions sensitive to biodiversity loss. Our study provides a scientific foundation for these targeted efforts, ensuring that regions are prioritized under various future scenarios. This approach aids in developing effective conservation strategies amidst the complex interplay of land use dynamics and climate change.