Eigen microstate analysis unveils climate dynamics

IF 6.4 1区 物理与天体物理 Q1 PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Hua Tu, Shang Wang, Jun Meng, Yongwen Zhang, Xiaosong Chen, Deliang Chen, Jingfang Fan
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Abstract

The Earth’s climate operates as a complex, dynamically interconnected system, driven by both anthropogenic and natural forcings and modulated by nonlinear interactions and feedback loops. This study employs a theoretical framework and the Eigen Microstate (EM) approach of statistical physics to examine global surface temperature variations since 1948, as revealed by a global reanalysis. We identified EMs significantly correlated with key climate phenomena such as the global monsoon system, tropical climates, and El Niño. Our analysis reveals that these EMs have increasingly influenced global surface temperature variations over recent decades, highlighting the critical roles of hemispheric differences, land-sea contrasts, and tropical climate fluctuations in a warming world. Additionally, we used model simulations from more than 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under three future climate scenarios to perform a comparative analysis of the changes in each EM contribution. The results indicate that under future warming scenarios, tropical climate fluctuations will become increasingly dominant, while traditional hemispheric and monsoonal patterns may decline. This shift underscores the importance of understanding tropical dynamics and their impact on global climate from a physics-based perspective. Our study provides a new perspective on understanding and addressing global climate change, enhancing the theoretical foundation of this critical field, and yielding findings with significant practical implications for improving climate models and developing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies.

特征微态分析揭示了气候动力学
地球气候是一个复杂的、动态互联的系统,由人为强迫和自然强迫驱动,并由非线性相互作用和反馈回路调节。本研究采用统计物理学的理论框架和特征微态(EM)方法来研究自1948年以来全球表面温度的变化,这是由全球再分析揭示的。我们发现,新兴市场与全球季风系统、热带气候和厄尔尼诺现象Niño等关键气候现象显著相关。我们的分析表明,近几十年来,这些新兴市场对全球表面温度变化的影响越来越大,突出了半球差异、陆海对比和热带气候波动在变暖世界中的关键作用。此外,我们利用10多个耦合模式比对项目第6阶段(CMIP6)在三种未来气候情景下的模式模拟,对每种EM贡献的变化进行了比较分析。结果表明,在未来变暖情景下,热带气候波动将日益占主导地位,而传统的半球和季风模式可能会减弱。这一转变强调了从物理学角度理解热带动力学及其对全球气候影响的重要性。我们的研究为理解和应对全球气候变化提供了一个新的视角,增强了这一关键领域的理论基础,并为改进气候模型和制定有效的减缓和适应战略提供了重要的实际意义。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Science China Physics, Mechanics & Astronomy
Science China Physics, Mechanics & Astronomy PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
10.30
自引率
6.20%
发文量
4047
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: Science China Physics, Mechanics & Astronomy, an academic journal cosponsored by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the National Natural Science Foundation of China, and published by Science China Press, is committed to publishing high-quality, original results in both basic and applied research. Science China Physics, Mechanics & Astronomy, is published in both print and electronic forms. It is indexed by Science Citation Index. Categories of articles: Reviews summarize representative results and achievements in a particular topic or an area, comment on the current state of research, and advise on the research directions. The author’s own opinion and related discussion is requested. Research papers report on important original results in all areas of physics, mechanics and astronomy. Brief reports present short reports in a timely manner of the latest important results.
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