Does better governance abate the external debt–capital flight revolvement in sub-Saharan Africa?

Abstract

Most African countries are grappling with long-term fiscal slippages and escalating debt burdens due to high levels of non-concessional and overcapitalized borrowing. At the same time, the continent is paradoxically deemed a net creditor to the rest of the world owing to excessive capital flight. More concerning is the seemingly strong correlation between external debt and capital flight from these countries. While some studies have considered the moderating role of governance in the effect of capital flight on various sectors of African economies, how governance may moderate the correlation between external debt and capital flight remains empirically unexplored. Using unbalanced panel data on capital flight, external debt, and governance indicators from 1990 to 2020 for 20 African countries, we observe that; (i) the external debt–capital flight revolvement may be a short-run rather than a long-run phenomenon. (ii) The marginal effects show that improved governance indicators at least moderate the short-run positive correlation between external debt and capital flight. We discuss the policy implications.