Serum-biomarker-based population screening model for hepatocellular carcinoma

IF 4.6 2区综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

iScience Pub Date : 2025-02-08 DOI:10.1016/j.isci.2025.111981

Wenmin Liao , Wenbin Lin , Zhonglian He , Chenyang Feng , Yuying Liu , Zixian Wang , Ruizhi Wang , Meifang He , Shuqin Dai , Ying Sun , Wei Wei , Peisong Chen , Chaofeng Li

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Abstract

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) early identification is crucial for improving patient outcomes. Current screening methods are often complex and costly. This study developed a simplified, cost-effective HCC screening model using serum marker data. A diverse study population from two Chinese hospitals was recruited, including cancer patients, hospital patients, and healthy individuals. A two-stage screening model was created: LASSO logistic regression for preliminary screening, followed by logistic regression incorporating alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). The model’s performance was evaluated in multiple cohorts. Across five populations, the model showed strong performance with AUC-ROC ranging from 0.868 to 0.907, accuracy between 87.43% and 96.96%, and sensitivity over 75% with specificity above 90%. Compared with solely AFP models, the second-stage model improved HCC risk estimates in healthy populations, with significantly higher AUC (0.930 vs. 0.827) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) up to 56.2%. This two-stage model offers a practical, cost-efficient tool for early HCC detection, addressing a significant public health need.

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来源期刊

iScience Multidisciplinary-Multidisciplinary

CiteScore

7.20

自引率

1.70%

发文量

1972

审稿时长

6 weeks

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