Assessing the effects of ENSO-induced climate variability on shallow coastal groundwater reserves of north Patagonia, Argentina

IF 4.9 Q2 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL

Groundwater for Sustainable Development Pub Date : 2025-02-17 DOI:10.1016/j.gsd.2025.101427

Mattia Gaiolini , Rosario Acosta , Eleonora Carol , Nicolò Colombani

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Abstract

In this study, a statistical correlation analysis, integrating climatic indices and numerically calculated hydrological datasets, was used to assess the impact of climate patterns and meteorological variability (identified by ONI and SPEI, respectively) on a coastal aquifer in a semi-arid area of Patagonia. To estimate aquifer groundwater levels and flows changes over the 56 years period (1967–2022) under analysis, a 3D numerical flow model was implemented, calibrated against observed piezometric heads and validated using remote sensing data from the GRACE mission. Results highlighted the role of meteoric recharge and evapotranspiration in shaping the water budget, highly affecting the piezometric fluctuation over the simulation. The statistical correlation showed a weak positive association between GW levels and both ONI and SPEI, indicating that climate and meteorological variability are exerting a slight but noticeable influence on groundwater dynamics. Moreover, an increasing seawater inflow from the ocean and tidal channels was observed due to decreasing meteoric recharge and this climate change-driven shift in water exchange dynamics could potentially increase salinization risk in the low-lying areas of this coastal aquifer. The developed methodology could help a proper water resource management in a coastal region where groundwater is the only source of supply for residents, providing useful information for studying groundwater resources in other coastal areas of Patagonia and the world that face similar water problems.

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enso诱导的气候变率对阿根廷巴塔哥尼亚北部浅海地下水储量的影响评估

本文采用统计相关分析方法，综合气候指数和数值计算水文数据集，评估了气候模式和气象变率（分别由ONI和SPEI识别）对巴塔哥尼亚半干旱区沿海含水层的影响。为了估算56年间（1967-2022年）的含水层地下水位和流量变化，研究人员实施了一个3D数值流量模型，根据观测到的压头进行校准，并使用GRACE任务的遥感数据进行验证。结果强调了大气补给和蒸散发在形成水分收支中的作用，在模拟过程中高度影响气压波动。GW水平与ONI和SPEI均呈弱正相关，表明气候和气象变率对地下水动态的影响虽小但显著。此外，由于大气补给的减少，观测到来自海洋和潮汐通道的海水流入增加，这种气候变化驱动的水交换动态变化可能增加该沿海含水层低洼地区的盐渍化风险。开发的方法可以帮助在地下水是居民唯一供应来源的沿海地区进行适当的水资源管理，为研究面临类似水问题的巴塔哥尼亚和世界其他沿海地区的地下水资源提供有用的资料。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Groundwater for Sustainable Development Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development

CiteScore

11.50

自引率

10.20%

发文量

152

期刊介绍： Groundwater for Sustainable Development is directed to different stakeholders and professionals, including government and non-governmental organizations, international funding agencies, universities, public water institutions, public health and other public/private sector professionals, and other relevant institutions. It is aimed at professionals, academics and students in the fields of disciplines such as: groundwater and its connection to surface hydrology and environment, soil sciences, engineering, ecology, microbiology, atmospheric sciences, analytical chemistry, hydro-engineering, water technology, environmental ethics, economics, public health, policy, as well as social sciences, legal disciplines, or any other area connected with water issues. The objectives of this journal are to facilitate: • The improvement of effective and sustainable management of water resources across the globe. • The improvement of human access to groundwater resources in adequate quantity and good quality. • The meeting of the increasing demand for drinking and irrigation water needed for food security to contribute to a social and economically sound human development. • The creation of a global inter- and multidisciplinary platform and forum to improve our understanding of groundwater resources and to advocate their effective and sustainable management and protection against contamination. • Interdisciplinary information exchange and to stimulate scientific research in the fields of groundwater related sciences and social and health sciences required to achieve the United Nations Millennium Development Goals for sustainable development.