The nexus between energy security and primary energy supply: An empirical study focusing on an energy striped country

Abstract

This study explores the impact of primary supply (i.e. Gas, Coal, Oil, Nuclear, Renewable) reduction via policy intervention of 5 percent, 10 percent, and 15 percent on diversification of energy resources, imported fuel cost, energy security in terms of reduction of fossil fuels import bill and greenhouse gases emissions during period of 2005–2050. The study utilizes MARKAL model of Pakistan and reveals that under policy cases, there would be marginal decrease in primary energy supply, coupled with a 12.5 percent increase in cumulative renewable energy, resulting in 9.57 percent decline in greenhouse gases emissions. Moreover, findings of the study show an increase in energy security as there is a 2.4 percent decline in net energy import dependency, an average 5 percent reduction in net oil import dependency, 8 percent decrease in energy import dependency and a 5 percent increase in diversification of energy resources. Thus, primary energy supply reduction targets could serve as suitable criteria for improving energy security in emerging nation like Pakistan.