Oil tanker emissions: Measurement, factors, and future scenarios

Abstract

This study measured emissions from 76 oil tankers at Eastern Black Sea petroleum terminals to determine their emission factors. Emissions of CO, CO₂, NO_X, and SO₂ were measured during cruise (C), maneuvering (M), and hotelling (H) activities of main engines (ME) and auxiliary engines (AE). Using an activity-based approach, emission factors were calculated from the collected data. Real-time data from 2013 to 2021 were utilized to determine total emissions for each year, while regression analysis forecasted emissions until 2040 under various scenarios. Weighted emission factors for ME were determined as 1.1 ± 0.22 g/kWh for CO, 654 ± 13 g/kWh for CO₂, 13.95 ± 2.75 g/kWh for NO_X, and 11.45± g/kWh for SO₂, and for AE, 1.1 ± 0.21 g/kWh for CO, 706 ± 15 g/kWh for CO₂, 15.3 ± 1.4 g/kWh for NO_X, and 11.15 ± 2.25 g/kWh. Average load factors were as follows: C (ME): 67%, C (AE): 35%, M (ME): 34%, M (AE): 53%, H (ME): 76%, H (AE): 62%. Total emissions from oil tankers in 2022 were projected to be 235 tons for CO, 151580 tons for CO₂, 3018 tons for NO_X, and 2251 tons for SO₂. Future scenarios indicate these amounts could increase by 3, 5, and 12 times by 2040 under optimistic, normal, and pessimistic scenarios, respectively.