How can a disaster trigger substantial policy? A power analysis of the 1998 floods and forest restoration in China

Abstract

Disasters are often regarded as catalysts for transformative shifts toward sustainability. This study highlights the central role of power relations in post-disaster developmental transformations. It argues that such transformations are driven not solely by rational decision-making, but also by the complex interplay of power dynamics among actors motivated by both formal and informal interests. Using the “actor-power-interest” analytical framework, this research examines the power dynamics and interests of key actors involved in the 1998 floods and the implementation of the Natural Forest Resources Protection (NFRP) Program in China. The study finds that the Chinese central government leveraged the 1998 floods as a strategic opportunity to implement the NFRP Program, dismantling local alliances centered around logging interests and shifting the balance of power toward central control. This transformation was facilitated by the government's use of coercive measures, financial incentives, and informational monitoring, all underpinned by the political will of key leaders and the financial resources accumulated following the 1994 tax reform. The findings underscore the critical role of power resources in enabling key actors to seize windows of opportunity and drive substantial policy changes.