Global burden of colorectal cancer attributable to metabolic risks from 1990 to 2021, with projections of mortality to 2035.

IF 2.5 3区医学 Q2 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY

International Journal of Colorectal Disease Pub Date : 2025-02-19 DOI:10.1007/s00384-025-04817-w

Maolang He, Ruru Gu, Xin Huang, Aifang Zhao, Shuxin Tian, Yong Zheng

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: The global burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) attributable to metabolic risk factors is increasing. It is crucial to analyze the global epidemiological patterns of CRC attributable to metabolic risk factors and predict future trends.

Methods: Detailed data on CRC mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to metabolic risk factors were extracted for this study using data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2021 study to assess the burden of CRC from 1990 to 2021 by global, regional, national, and sociodemographic index (SDI) regions and quantify the time trend using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models projected the global mortality from 2022 to 2035.

Results: The global number of CRC deaths due to metabolic risk factors increased from 70,916 in 1990 to 172,993 in 2021, a 2.4-fold increase. CRC mortality and DALYs attributable to high body mass index (BMI) and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) increased significantly at the global level from 1990 to 2021. In 2021, the GBD regions with the highest CRC age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) due to high BMI and high FPG were in Central Europe. The ASMR of CRC attributable to high BMI and high FPG among males is expected to increase from 2022 to 2035.

Conclusion: CRC mortality and DALYs attributable to metabolic factors are increasing. Reducing the burden of CRC due to high BMI and FPG levels is critically needed.

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1990年至2021年代谢风险导致的全球结直肠癌负担，以及2035年死亡率预测。

背景：由代谢危险因素引起的全球结直肠癌（CRC）负担正在增加。分析代谢危险因素导致的全球结直肠癌流行病学模式并预测未来趋势至关重要。方法：本研究使用全球疾病负担（GBD） 2021研究的数据提取代谢危险因素导致的结直肠癌死亡率和残疾调整生命年（DALYs）的详细数据，以评估1990年至2021年全球、地区、国家和社会人口指数（SDI）区域的结直肠癌负担，并使用估计的年百分比变化（EAPC）量化时间趋势。贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型预测了2022年至2035年的全球死亡率。结果：全球因代谢危险因素导致的结直肠癌死亡人数从1990年的70,916人增加到2021年的172,993人，增加了2.4倍。从1990年到2021年，全球范围内由高体重指数（BMI）和空腹血糖（FPG）导致的结直肠癌死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）显著增加。2021年，由于高BMI和高FPG， CRC年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）最高的GBD地区是中欧。2022年至2035年，男性高BMI和高FPG导致的结直肠癌ASMR预计将增加。结论：代谢因素导致的结直肠癌死亡率和DALYs呈上升趋势。减少高BMI和FPG水平导致的结直肠癌负担是迫切需要的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Colorectal Disease 医学-外科

CiteScore

4.90

自引率

3.60%

发文量

206

审稿时长

3-8 weeks

期刊介绍： The International Journal of Colorectal Disease, Clinical and Molecular Gastroenterology and Surgery aims to publish novel and state-of-the-art papers which deal with the physiology and pathophysiology of diseases involving the entire gastrointestinal tract. In addition to original research articles, the following categories will be included: reviews (usually commissioned but may also be submitted), case reports, letters to the editor, and protocols on clinical studies. The journal offers its readers an interdisciplinary forum for clinical science and molecular research related to gastrointestinal disease.