Global and regional burden of kidney cancer due to high body index in adults from 1990 to 2021 and predictions to 2036.

IF 2.5 4区医学 Q3 ONCOLOGY

European Journal of Cancer Prevention Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI:10.1097/CEJ.0000000000000961

Meng Zhang, Yuefan Shen, Jianguo Gao, Sihai Shao

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Abstract

Monitoring the evolving global and regional burden of kidney cancer attributable to high BMI is vital for informing prevention and healthcare policies. This study aimed to evaluate historical trends in the global and regional burden of kidney cancer attributable to high BMI from 1990 to 2021 and to predict future trends through 2036 for individuals aged 20 years and older. We conducted a retrospective analysis using the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database. We analyzed data on mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) linked to kidney cancer from high BMI. Stratifications included sociodemographic index (SDI), region, sex, and age. Temporal trends were assessed using joinpoint regression models, while the relationship between SDI and regional burden was examined. Projections were generated using Bayesian age-period-cohort models. In 2021, high BMI contributed to 19.86% of global kidney cancer deaths (0.032 million) and 19.00% of DALYs (0.782 million), representing an increase since 1990. Globally, age-standardized mortality rate and age-standardized disability rate have declined in recent years. However, rates have risen in developing regions such as South Asia and East Asia. Projections indicate stable global rates with slight fluctuations through 2036. The global kidney cancer burden attributable to high BMI shows signs of decline but continues to rise in some developing regions. Addressing this disparity requires strengthening obesity prevention and control strategies tailored to regional needs.

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1990 年至 2021 年和预测至 2036 年全球和各地区成年人因高体质指数导致的肾癌负担。

监测高BMI导致的全球和区域肾癌负担的演变，对于告知预防和医疗保健政策至关重要。本研究旨在评估1990年至2021年高BMI导致的全球和区域肾癌负担的历史趋势，并预测到2036年20岁及以上个体的未来趋势。我们使用2021年全球疾病负担数据库进行了回顾性分析。我们分析了与高BMI引起的肾癌相关的死亡率和残疾调整生命年（DALYs）数据。分层包括社会人口统计指数（SDI）、地区、性别和年龄。采用连接点回归模型评估了时间趋势，同时考察了SDI与区域负担之间的关系。使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型进行预测。2021年，高BMI占全球肾癌死亡人数的19.86%（0.032万），占残疾调整生命年数的19.00%（0.782万），自1990年以来有所增加。在全球范围内，年龄标准化死亡率和年龄标准化残疾率近年来有所下降。然而，南亚和东亚等发展中地区的发病率有所上升。预测表明，到2036年，全球利率将保持稳定，略有波动。高BMI导致的全球肾癌负担有下降的迹象，但在一些发展中地区继续上升。要解决这一差距，就需要加强针对区域需要的肥胖预防和控制战略。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

European Journal of Cancer Prevention 医学-肿瘤学

CiteScore

4.10

自引率

4.20%

发文量

审稿时长

1 months

期刊介绍： European Journal of Cancer Prevention aims to promote an increased awareness of all aspects of cancer prevention and to stimulate new ideas and innovations. The Journal has a wide-ranging scope, covering such aspects as descriptive and metabolic epidemiology, histopathology, genetics, biochemistry, molecular biology, microbiology, clinical medicine, intervention trials and public education, basic laboratory studies and special group studies. Although affiliated to a European organization, the journal addresses issues of international importance.