Conservation methods for Trollius mountain flowers in Xinjiang, China under climate change: Habitat networks construction based on habitat suitability and protected areas optimization response.

Abstract

Mountain flower species tend to be more climate-sensitive. Trollius is a mountain flower species of ecological and cultural significance in Xinjiang, China, but climate change has caused habitat fragmentation, which is the dominant threat to their survival. However, the precise mechanism of how climate change affects their distribution and the extent of habitat fragmentation remains unclear. Accordingly, Modeling was employed to obtain Trollius's habitat changes and fragmentation indices under different periods and climate scenarios. Based on this, the study identified potential corridors, evaluated habitat network patterns, and performed spatial optimization. The results demonstrated that Trollius species don't have the same climate adaptation ability. T. asiaticus exhibits exceptional climate adaptation with habitat expansion and minimal fragmentation, but the other species' habitat area and connectivity index dropped markedly. The Tien Shan and Altay Mountains represent the primary habitat sources of Trollius, while the Western Junggar Mountains serve as a crucial stepping stone. Habitat clusters are predominantly connected by short but efficient primary corridors, which showed stability when facing climatic fluctuation. Highly centralized "source-corridor" systems require enhanced identifying of pinch points and removing barrier points to ensure high connectivity. Furthermore, the protected areas system is inadequate in its protective function, with less than 7% of habitat areas covered by nature reserves and less than 15% covered by nature parks. The findings can provide scientific basis and methodological support for regional climate strategy making on biodiversity conservation and the optimization of protected areas.