Public water risk concerns triggered by energy-transition-mineral mining

Abstract

The intensifying demand for energy transition minerals (ETMs) has triggered global concern over water-related issues in mining regions. However, localized and generalizable metrics are lacking to help companies and governments manage social licenses to operate (SLO). In this study, we propose an analytical method that combines digital media data from the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) with high-resolution mining data to analyze social awareness. LightGBM with Shapley additive explanations models are introduced to uncover key factors influencing public sentiment. This approach was applied to analyze media attention and public sentiment on five categories of water issues across 12 mineral types and 511 mines from 2016 to 2023. Our findings show a 40% increase in water-related events linked to ETM mining since 2020. Regions such as East and Southeast Asia, and Central and South America exhibit rising but negative sentiment, while public discontent in Southern Africa remains consistently high. Cobalt, platinum, and vanadium have the most negative sentiment, particularly concerning water quality and pollution. Manganese shows the most negative sentiment due to concerns over drought and desertification. Model results indicate that the Goldstein scale of events, which reflects the magnitude of cooperation or conflict, was the most influential factor in shaping public sentiment. Precipitation has a significant positive impact on sentiment in drought- and flood-related events, while higher runoff improved sentiment in drought events but negatively affected flood- and water quality-related events. Socio-economic factors, such as educational expenditure and unemployment rates, also demonstrated varied effects across categories. Finally, this study introduces the water sentiment index (WSI) as a proxy for water-related SLO concerns, offering a new tool to track social awareness in ETM regions and providing actionable insights for policymakers and stakeholders to mitigate social risks and ensure sustainable mining practices.