Projection of Electricity Generation Profiles and Carbon Emissions Towards 2050: A Malaysia Context

Abstract

The planning of future energy systems that incorporate a significant share of renewable energy (RE) is gaining importance as a solution to energy security and environmental issues. In bottom-up energy system modelling, there are two primary approaches: one focuses on optimising the energy mix for a specific target year (static), while the other seeks to optimise the transition from the current reference to a target year (long-term). This paper aims to model and analyse Malaysia's renewable energy transition towards 2050 with both static and long-term approaches. The Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) was used to develop five Malaysian national energy system models from 2020 to 2050 with primary focus on the power sector. Optimal energy storage capacities were investigated in the National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR 2050) model using the coupling of LEAP with Next Energy Modelling system for Optimization (NEMO). For the Reference Model (2020), the total electricity generation was at 153.8 TWh/year mainly driven by coal and natural gas. With LEAP-NEMO optimisation in the NETR 2050 model with the integration of battery energy storage systems (BESS) and pumped hydro storage (PHS), the total annual electricity generation was 270.6 TWh/year with contributions from natural gas and solar. For the total emissions in all sectors, the results for models 1 to 5 resulted in 287.5, 321.5, 382.1, 404.5, and 466.3 Mt. CO2 respectively. With LEAP-NEMO optimisation and energy efficiency for demand reduction, model 5 was improved to be at 449.7 Mt. CO2 mainly due to the smaller electricity generated by natural gas in the power sector. Based on the economic results of the two long-term scenarios, the total net present value was calculated to be 1210.7 billion USD for NETR 2050 with respect to Ref (2020). With the LEAP-NEMO optimisation, the total net present value resulted in 1005.7 billion USD. Based on the LEAP results, a significant shift in the technological landscape will be required, with RE, energy storage systems (ESS), and energy efficiency taking on key roles. The findings from this paper can aid researchers and policymakers in creating strategic plans in RE and ESS development that can be applied to the case of Malaysia and other countries.