Agricultural fertilization significantly enhances amplitude of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange

Abstract

Observations show an increase in the seasonal cycle amplitude of CO₂ in northern latitudes over the past half century. Although multiple drivers contribute, observations and inversion models cannot quantitatively account for the factors contributing to the increased CO₂ amplitude and older versions of Earth System Models (ESMs) do not simulate it. Here we show that several current generation ESMs are closer to the observed CO₂ amplitude and highlight that in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) agricultural nitrogen (N) fertilization increases CO₂ amplitude by 1-3 ppm throughout the Northern Hemisphere and up to 9 ppm in agricultural hotspots. While agricultural N fertilization is the largest contributor to the enhanced amplitude (45%) in Northern Hemisphere land-atmosphere carbon fluxes in CESM, higher CO₂ concentrations and warmer temperatures also contribute, though to a lesser extent (40% and 18% respectively). Our results emphasize the fundamental role of agricultural management in Northern Hemisphere carbon cycle feedbacks and illustrate that agricultural N fertilization should be considered in future carbon cycle simulations.