[Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of China's Industrial Carbon Emissions at the "City-industry" Scale： From the Perspective of Industrial Correlation].

Abstract

In the context of the deepening of the "dual carbon" strategy, based on the customs database and the energy consumption database, starting from the "city-industry" scale, this study characterizes and analyzes the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of carbon emissions from double-digit industrial industries in prefecture-level cities in China. We constructed a fixed effects model using panel data and studied the impact and transmission mechanism of industrial correlation, empowering industrial carbon reduction. Moreover, it was revealed that： ① The carbon emission intensity of various industries in the eastern and central western regions had decreased, and the difference in industry carbon emissions between the two regions had been significantly reduced. The carbon emission intensity of the same industry category in the central and western regions decreased more significantly, and the effectiveness of industrial carbon reduction measures was significant. ② Improving the level of industry correlation within cities was an alternative path to reducing carbon emissions. For every 1% increase in industrial correlation, the average carbon emission intensity decreased by 0.234%, a result that still held after a series of robustness tests. ③ This effect was more significant in capital-intensive industries, middle- and low-end technology industries, western regions, and cities with stronger government intervention. ④ The quality of technological innovation and the vitality of the digital economy played an important intermediary role in the carbon emission reduction effect of industrial linkage. Industrial linkage promoted the reduction in industrial carbon emission intensity by improving the quality of technological innovation and economic innovation vitality. The research results uncovered the "black box" of the effectiveness of industry correlation in promoting industry carbon reduction at the "city-industry" scale, which can provide new decision-making references for achieving coordinated and unified regional industrial development and low-carbon transformation.