[Multi-scenario Simulation and Eco-environmental Effect Analysis of Production-Living-Ecological Space in Henan Province Based on PLUS Model].

Abstract

Considering Henan Province as the research area, based on land use data with a resolution of 30 m in 2000, 2010, and 2020, we analyzed the distribution of the production-living-ecological space and the quality of the ecological environment in Henan Province using land transfer matrices and an eco-environmental effect model. Furthermore, based on 2020 land use data, the PLUS model was used to simulate land use data for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050 under three scenarios： natural development, production priority, and ecological priority. Finally, we calculated the ecological environment quality index and ecological contribution rate. The results showed that： ① From 2000 to 2020, the area of production space decreased by 4 879 km², the area of living space increased by 19%, and the area of ecological space increased by 1.9%. ② From 2000 to 2020, the eco-environmental quality index increased from 0.364 6 in 2000 to 0.366 5 in 2010 and then decreased to 0.365 7 in 2020, which was at a medium level. ③ From 2030 to 2050, the distribution of production-living-ecological space will remain unchanged, and the trend under the natural development and ecological priority scenarios will remain unchanged. ④ From 2020 to 2050, Henan Province had the best ecological environment under the ecological priority scenario, and the ecological environment quality index was predicted to be 0.365 7 in 2030, 0.366 0 in 2040, and 0.366 5 in 2050. The distribution of production-living-ecological space is of great importance for the future development of the earth's space and the construction of an ecological environment.