Enhanced Spatial Dry–Wet Contrast in the Future of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

IF 3.2 3区 地球科学 Q1 Environmental Science
Fan Yang, Aizhong Ye, Yunfei Wang
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The geographical uniqueness of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) determines its significance as ‘Asia's Water Tower’. It is expected that climate change in this area will cause extreme weather occurrences, stress water resources and increase the vulnerability of ecosystems in the future. However, the precise quantitative impact of climate change on the QTP remains uncertain. In this study, using coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP) phase 6 multi-model data and a distributed time-variant gain hydrological model (DTVGM), we examined the spatiotemporal attributes of climate and hydrology across the QTP under various socioeconomic progress trajectories and greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). Over the next 80 years, an overall warming trend was observed on the QTP, accompanied by a decrease in annual total water resources. The drier the arid regions, the wetter are the humid regions on the future QTP. Runoff will decrease by 74.92% in the region, and evaporation will increase by 84.93% from 2020 to 2099. In SSP5-8.5, the precipitation change rate was −6.22 mm/10a, and the runoff change rate was −8.84 mm/10a. After a year of abrupt precipitation change (2052–2064), the decrease in runoff became significantly faster. The total runoff was approximately 58.00% of the surface runoff. Unlike the runoff trend, evaporation displayed a fluctuating upward pattern, with an average change rate of 2.78 mm/10a. Spatially, the variations in dry–wet conditions became more evident, showing a substantial decrease in runoff and a noteworthy increase in evaporation on the northeastern plateau. In the southeastern region of the Yarlung Tsangpo River Basin, the precipitation and runoff increase rates were notably higher than those in other regions. Moreover, there was a significant surge in runoff in areas adjacent to the glaciers. In conclusion, this study offers valuable insights into decision-making concerning future developmental trajectories in the region.

Abstract Image

未来青藏高原干湿对比增强的空间格局
青藏高原(QTP)的地理独特性决定了它作为“亚洲水塔”的重要性。预计未来该地区的气候变化将导致极端天气的发生,对水资源造成压力,增加生态系统的脆弱性。然而,气候变化对QTP的精确定量影响仍然不确定。本研究利用耦合模式比对项目(CMIP)第6阶段多模型数据和分布式时变增益水文模型(DTVGM),研究了不同社会经济发展轨迹和温室气体排放情景(SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5)下青藏高原气候和水文的时空属性。未来80年,青藏高原总体呈升温趋势,年水资源总量减少。在未来QTP上,干旱地区越干燥,湿润地区越湿润。2020 - 2099年,流域径流量将减少74.92%,蒸发量将增加84.93%。ssp5—8.5期降水变化率为−6.22 mm/10a,径流变化率为−8.84 mm/10a。经过一个降水突变年份(2052-2064),径流减少速度明显加快。总径流量约为地表径流量的58.00%。与径流趋势不同,蒸发量呈波动上升趋势,平均变化率为2.78 mm/10a。空间上,干湿条件变化更为明显,东北高原径流量大幅减少,蒸发量显著增加。雅鲁藏布江流域东南部地区降水和径流量增幅显著高于其他地区。此外,冰川附近地区的径流显著增加。总之,这项研究为该地区未来发展轨迹的决策提供了有价值的见解。
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来源期刊
Hydrological Processes
Hydrological Processes 环境科学-水资源
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
12.50%
发文量
313
审稿时长
2-4 weeks
期刊介绍: Hydrological Processes is an international journal that publishes original scientific papers advancing understanding of the mechanisms underlying the movement and storage of water in the environment, and the interaction of water with geological, biogeochemical, atmospheric and ecological systems. Not all papers related to water resources are appropriate for submission to this journal; rather we seek papers that clearly articulate the role(s) of hydrological processes.
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