Past and Future Modulation of the ENSO Teleconnection to Southeast Asian Rainfall by Interbasin Interactions

IF 4.6 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-02-17 DOI:10.1029/2024GL111916

Emmie J. Le Roy, Caroline C. Ummenhofer

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Abstract

Decadal variations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)'s influence on Southeast Asian rainfall are modulated by variability in the mean state of atmospheric circulation and moisture anomalies in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP). Variations in the mean state are characterized by a tripolar pattern in sea surface temperatures (SST) spanning the Indian Ocean, central IPWP, and western Pacific regions. Due to ENSO teleconnection asymmetry, Southeast Asian rainfall is more sensitive to La Niña than El Niño. During positive phases of the tripole pattern, the mean state is drier, with reduced vertical motion over mainland Southeast Asia suppressing La Niña anomalies. In negative phases, the mean state is wetter, with enhanced vertical motion amplifying La Niña anomalies. From 1980 to 2015, relative SST trends show a negative tripole pattern, strengthening the ENSO - Southeast Asian rainfall relationship. However, future projections for 2050–2100 suggest a positive tripole pattern, predicting a weakening of this relationship by 2100.

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ENSO遥相关对东南亚降水的盆地间相互作用的过去和未来调制

El Niño-Southern涛动（ENSO）对东南亚降雨影响的年代际变化是由印度太平洋暖池（IPWP）大气环流平均状态的变率和湿度异常调制的。平均状态变化的特点是海表温度（SST）在印度洋、IPWP中部和西太平洋地区呈三极型。由于ENSO遥相关的不对称性，东南亚降水对La Niña比El Niño更敏感。在三极型正相期间，平均状态较为干燥，东南亚大陆上空垂直运动减少，抑制了La Niña异常。在负相，平均状态更湿润，垂直运动增强放大了La Niña异常。1980 - 2015年海温相对趋势呈负三极子型，强化了ENSO与东南亚降水的关系。然而，对2050-2100年的未来预测表明，这是一个正的三极模式，预计到2100年这种关系将减弱。

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来源期刊

Geophysical Research Letters 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

9.00

自引率

9.60%

发文量

1588

审稿时长

2.2 months

期刊介绍： Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) publishes high-impact, innovative, and timely research on major scientific advances in all the major geoscience disciplines. Papers are communications-length articles and should have broad and immediate implications in their discipline or across the geosciences. GRLmaintains the fastest turn-around of all high-impact publications in the geosciences and works closely with authors to ensure broad visibility of top papers.