Global, regional and national trends in incidence and mortality of pertussis from 1990 to 2021 and the comparison before and during COVID-19: A modelling analysis

IF 4.7 3区医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Journal of Infection and Public Health Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI:10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102696

Shimo Zhang , Sijia Wang , Jue Liu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

Pertussis, a contagious respiratory disease, has seen a global decline in cases due to vaccination but has resurged because of waning immunity, with further impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to assess the disease burden of pertussis worldwide from 1990 to 2021.

Methods

Using the GBD 2021, we extracted age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and death rates (ASDR) of pertussis and analyzed the trends of them through calculating the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) at global, regional and national levels from 1990 to 2021. Besides, we compared the EAPCs before and during the COVID-19 pandemic to explore the difference. Lastly, we investigated the association between age-standardized rates (ASR) and the socio-demographic index (SDI).

Results

From 1990–2021, the global ASIR and ASDR of pertussis witnessed an annual decline of 2.57 % (95 %CI: 1.91–3.22 %) and 3.20 % (2.54–3.85 %) on average, respectively. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the ASR showed steep downward trends not only globally but also in diverse regions. Nevertheless, before the pandemic, Southern Sub-Sahara Africa witnessed upward trends in ASR, whose EAPCs were 0.85 % (0.67–1.02 %) for ASIR and 0.65 % (0.41–0.88 %) for ASDR. Additionally, a remarkable negative correlation was revealed between ASR and SDI (Regional level: r = -0.843; r = -0.885. National level: r = -0.621; r = -0.762. All P < 0.001.), corroborating with the observation that regions and countries with lower SDI bore the higher disease burden.

Conclusions

From 1990–2021, global burden of pertussis showed a downward trend, with significant drops during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, before the COVID-19, Southern Sub-Saharan Africa saw rising ASIR and ASDR, contrary to the majority. Besides, SDI was proved negatively correlated with ASR, indicating that low-SDI countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, faced high disease burden, which highlighted the need for improving immunization, surveillance, and healthcare resource allocation to control pertussis effectively.

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来源期刊

Journal of Infection and Public Health PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH -INFECTIOUS DISEASES

CiteScore

13.10

自引率

1.50%

发文量

203

审稿时长

96 days

期刊介绍： The Journal of Infection and Public Health, first official journal of the Saudi Arabian Ministry of National Guard Health Affairs, King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences and the Saudi Association for Public Health, aims to be the foremost scientific, peer-reviewed journal encompassing infection prevention and control, microbiology, infectious diseases, public health and the application of healthcare epidemiology to the evaluation of health outcomes. The point of view of the journal is that infection and public health are closely intertwined and that advances in one area will have positive consequences on the other. The journal will be useful to all health professionals who are partners in the management of patients with communicable diseases, keeping them up to date. The journal is proud to have an international and diverse editorial board that will assist and facilitate the publication of articles that reflect a global view on infection control and public health, as well as emphasizing our focus on supporting the needs of public health practitioners. It is our aim to improve healthcare by reducing risk of infection and related adverse outcomes by critical review, selection, and dissemination of new and relevant information in the field of infection control, public health and infectious diseases in all healthcare settings and the community.