Global, regional and national trends in incidence and mortality of pertussis from 1990 to 2021 and the comparison before and during COVID-19: A modelling analysis

IF 4.7 3区医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Journal of Infection and Public Health Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI:10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102696

Shimo Zhang , Sijia Wang , Jue Liu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

Pertussis, a contagious respiratory disease, has seen a global decline in cases due to vaccination but has resurged because of waning immunity, with further impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to assess the disease burden of pertussis worldwide from 1990 to 2021.

Methods

Using the GBD 2021, we extracted age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and death rates (ASDR) of pertussis and analyzed the trends of them through calculating the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) at global, regional and national levels from 1990 to 2021. Besides, we compared the EAPCs before and during the COVID-19 pandemic to explore the difference. Lastly, we investigated the association between age-standardized rates (ASR) and the socio-demographic index (SDI).

Results

From 1990–2021, the global ASIR and ASDR of pertussis witnessed an annual decline of 2.57 % (95 %CI: 1.91–3.22 %) and 3.20 % (2.54–3.85 %) on average, respectively. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the ASR showed steep downward trends not only globally but also in diverse regions. Nevertheless, before the pandemic, Southern Sub-Sahara Africa witnessed upward trends in ASR, whose EAPCs were 0.85 % (0.67–1.02 %) for ASIR and 0.65 % (0.41–0.88 %) for ASDR. Additionally, a remarkable negative correlation was revealed between ASR and SDI (Regional level: r = -0.843; r = -0.885. National level: r = -0.621; r = -0.762. All P < 0.001.), corroborating with the observation that regions and countries with lower SDI bore the higher disease burden.

Conclusions

From 1990–2021, global burden of pertussis showed a downward trend, with significant drops during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, before the COVID-19, Southern Sub-Saharan Africa saw rising ASIR and ASDR, contrary to the majority. Besides, SDI was proved negatively correlated with ASR, indicating that low-SDI countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, faced high disease burden, which highlighted the need for improving immunization, surveillance, and healthcare resource allocation to control pertussis effectively.

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1990年至2021年全球、区域和国家百日咳发病率和死亡率趋势以及COVID-19之前和期间的比较：建模分析

背景百日咳是一种传染性呼吸道疾病，由于接种疫苗，全球百日咳病例有所下降，但由于免疫力下降，加上COVID-19大流行的进一步影响，百日咳又死灰复燃。本研究旨在评估1990年至2021年全球百日咳的疾病负担。方法采用GBD 2021提取百日咳年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）和死亡率（ASDR），并通过计算1990 - 2021年全球、地区和国家水平的估计年百分比变化（EAPC），分析两者的变化趋势。此外，我们还比较了COVID-19大流行之前和期间的EAPCs，以探讨其差异。最后，我们调查了年龄标准化率（ASR）与社会人口指数（SDI）之间的关系。结果1990-2021年，全球百日咳ASIR和ASDR年均下降幅度分别为2.57 %（95 %CI: 1.91 ~ 3.22 %）和3.20 %（2.54 ~ 3.85 %）。在新冠肺炎大流行期间，无论是在全球还是在不同地区，ASR都呈现出急剧下降的趋势。然而，在大流行之前，撒哈拉以南非洲南部的ASR呈上升趋势，ASIR的EAPCs为0.85 %(0.67-1.02 %)，ASDR的EAPCs为0.65 %（0.41-0.88 %）。此外，ASR与SDI呈显著负相关(区域水平：r = -0.843；r = -0.885。全国水平：r = -0.621；r = -0.762。P值均为 <； 0.001.)，证实了SDI较低的地区和国家的疾病负担较高的观察结果。结论1990-2021年全球百日咳负担呈下降趋势，新冠肺炎大流行期间百日咳负担明显下降。然而，在新冠肺炎疫情前，撒哈拉以南非洲南部地区与大多数地区相反，非洲地区的ASIR和ASDR有所上升。此外，SDI被证明与ASR呈负相关，这表明低SDI国家，特别是撒哈拉以南非洲地区，面临着较高的疾病负担，这突出了需要改善免疫、监测和卫生保健资源配置，以有效控制百日咳。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Infection and Public Health PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH -INFECTIOUS DISEASES

CiteScore

13.10

自引率

1.50%

发文量

203

审稿时长

96 days

期刊介绍： The Journal of Infection and Public Health, first official journal of the Saudi Arabian Ministry of National Guard Health Affairs, King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences and the Saudi Association for Public Health, aims to be the foremost scientific, peer-reviewed journal encompassing infection prevention and control, microbiology, infectious diseases, public health and the application of healthcare epidemiology to the evaluation of health outcomes. The point of view of the journal is that infection and public health are closely intertwined and that advances in one area will have positive consequences on the other. The journal will be useful to all health professionals who are partners in the management of patients with communicable diseases, keeping them up to date. The journal is proud to have an international and diverse editorial board that will assist and facilitate the publication of articles that reflect a global view on infection control and public health, as well as emphasizing our focus on supporting the needs of public health practitioners. It is our aim to improve healthcare by reducing risk of infection and related adverse outcomes by critical review, selection, and dissemination of new and relevant information in the field of infection control, public health and infectious diseases in all healthcare settings and the community.