Evaluating methods to estimate the water equivalent of new snow from daily snow depth recordings

Abstract

The water equivalent of new snow (HNW) plays a crucial role in various fields, including hydrological modeling, avalanche forecasting, and assessing snow loads on structures. However, in contrast to snow depth (HS), obtaining HNW measurements is challenging as well as time-consuming and is hence rarely measured. Therefore, we assess the reliability of two semi-empirical methods, HS2SWE and ΔSNOW, for estimating HNW. These methods are designed to simulate continuous water equivalent of the snowpack (SWE) from daily HS only, with changes in SWE yielding daily HNW estimates. We compare both parametric methods against HNW predictions from a physics-based snow model (FSM2oshd) that integrates daily HS recordings using data assimilation. Our findings reveal that all methods exhibit similar performance, with relative biases of less than ∼3 % in replicating SWE observations commonly used for model evaluations. However, the ΔSNOW model tends to underestimate daily HNW by ∼17 %, whereas HS2SWE and FSM2oshd combined with a particle filter data assimilation scheme provide nearly unbiased estimates, with relative biases below ∼5 %. In contrast to the parsimonious parametric methods, we show that the physics-based approach can yield information about unobserved variables, such as total solid precipitation amounts, that may differ from HNW due to concurrent melt. Overall, our results underscore the potential of utilizing commonly available daily HS data in conjunction with appropriate modeling techniques to provide valuable insights into snow accumulation processes. Our study demonstrates that daily SWE observations or supplementary measurements like HNW are important for validating the day-to-day accuracy of simulations and should ideally already be incorporated during the calibration and development of models.