A data-driven dynamical system model for assessing targeted interventions against brucellosis in Tanzania

IF 2 3区 农林科学 Q4 IMMUNOLOGY
Innocent Sosoma , Eunice Mureithi , Guttorm Alendal , Zachariah Makondo , Nyimvua Shaban Mbare
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Brucellosis remains a critical public health and economic concern in Tanzania, particularly in regions with high livestock-human interaction. This paper developed a data-driven dynamical system model to evaluate targeted interventions for controlling brucellosis transmission. The model integrated human, animal, and environmental components, emphasizing public health education and domestic animal management practices. Data from ten regions namely Dodoma, Morogoro, Manyara, Arusha, Mara, Kagera, Shinyanga, Mwanza, Tanga, and Singida, collected between January 2021 and May 2024 were used for parameter estimation. The model was fitted to observed data using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method with the Adaptive Metropolis algorithm, while a graph-theoretic approach derived the effective reproduction number (Re) and the force of infection to quantify intervention impacts. Results showed a marked decline in brucellosis transmission. The force of infection dropped from 0.99262 in 2021 to 0.13265 in May 2024, and annual cases fell from 173 in 2021 to 93 in 2024. Public health education improved safe animal handling practices, while enhanced animal management strategies such as fencing, health checks, isolation of infected animals, and controlled breeding curbed disease spread and reduced environmental contamination. Sustained interventions kept Re < 1, achieving long-term disease control. These findings underscore the importance of continuous monitoring, expanded diagnostics, and region-specific interventions to sustain progress and address remaining challenges.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
102
审稿时长
40 days
期刊介绍: Comparative Immunology, Microbiology & Infectious Diseases aims to respond to the concept of "One Medicine" and to provide a venue for scientific exchange. Based on the concept of "Comparative Medicine" interdisciplinary cooperation between specialists in human and animal medicine is of mutual interest and benefit. Therefore, there is need to combine the respective interest of physicians, veterinarians and other health professionals for comparative studies relevant to either human or animal medicine . The journal is open to subjects of common interest related to the immunology, immunopathology, microbiology, parasitology and epidemiology of human and animal infectious diseases, especially zoonotic infections, and animal models of human infectious diseases. The role of environmental factors in disease emergence is emphasized. CIMID is mainly focusing on applied veterinary and human medicine rather than on fundamental experimental research.
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