How is the occurrence of rainfall-triggered landslides related to extreme rainfall?

IF 3.1 2区地球科学 Q2 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geomorphology Pub Date : 2025-02-13 DOI:10.1016/j.geomorph.2025.109666

Binru Zhao , Lulu Zhang , Xia Gu , Wen Luo , Zhaoyuan Yu , Linwang Yuan

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

In a warming climate, more frequent occurrences of extreme rainfall may increase the risk of landslides due to the triggering and preconditioning effects of rainfall conditions on landslides. However, the relationship between rainfall-triggered landslides and extreme rainfall has rarely been quantified. Here, by making full use of rich landslide records and dense rainfall measurements in the Liguria region, Bayesian analysis was applied to calculate the conditional probability of landslide occurrences under extreme and non-extreme rainfall. By considering the impact of the antecedent cumulative rainfall responsible for landslide occurrences and the threshold for determining extreme rainfall, it is found that extreme rainfall has a higher probability of triggering landslides than non-extreme rainfall, up to 33 times in the Liguria region, but this is still an underestimate when the impact of missing landslide records is taken into account. This indicates that extreme rainfall plays a much more significant role in triggering landslides than non-extreme rainfall. The satellite-based and reanalysis rainfall datasets are great alternatives to rain gauge data for areas with insufficient rainfall measurements for this analysis, although both underestimate the ratio of landslide probability under extreme rainfall to non-extreme rainfall.

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来源期刊

Geomorphology 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

8.00

自引率

10.30%

发文量

309

审稿时长

3.4 months

期刊介绍： Our journal''s scope includes geomorphic themes of: tectonics and regional structure; glacial processes and landforms; fluvial sequences, Quaternary environmental change and dating; fluvial processes and landforms; mass movement, slopes and periglacial processes; hillslopes and soil erosion; weathering, karst and soils; aeolian processes and landforms, coastal dunes and arid environments; coastal and marine processes, estuaries and lakes; modelling, theoretical and quantitative geomorphology; DEM, GIS and remote sensing methods and applications; hazards, applied and planetary geomorphology; and volcanics.