All-cause excess mortality following Storm Daniel flood event in Greece.

Abstract

Background: Storm Daniel, characterized as the most severe 21st century flood event in Greece, struck the Regions of Thessaly and Central Greece in early September 2023, resulting in 17 reported direct fatalities.

Methods: This study evaluated all-cause excess mortality in the prefectures of Fthiotida, Karditsa/Trikala and Magnesia affected by Storm Daniel. We compared weekly deaths during the first week and the 90 days following the flood, to expected deaths based on historical trends 2015-2019.

Results: During the week of the flooding event, Fthiotida, Karditsa/Trikala and Magnesia prefectures experienced mortality increases of 57% (95%CI: 19%-95%), 40% (95%CI: 13%-66%) and 39% (95%CI: 7%-70%) over expected levels, respectively. A total of 54 (95% CI: 31-77) excess deaths were recorded during the week of Storm Daniel's landfall, with the cumulative number of excess deaths reaching to 335 (95% CI: 250-420) over subsequent 90 days.

Conclusion: Conventional approaches that focus solely on immediate and direct flood fatalities underestimate the overall and actual health risks faced by flood-affected communities. Floods have complex and long-term health effects, necessitating continuous monitoring of the affected communities.