Asymmetric connectedness among the G7 REITs market: How important are oil returns, climate policy uncertainty, and geopolitical risks?

Abstract

This paper examines how global factors influence the asymmetric connectedness among G7 REITs markets. It hypothesizes that bearish markets may exhibit higher connectedness than bullish markets because people react more to losses than gains. Using the extended TVP-VAR model, the study estimates connectedness indexes under three market conditions across three samples: pre-crisis, crisis, and full sample. The findings reveal that REIT markets are more connected in bearish conditions than in bullish ones, even when connectedness was heightened during crises. Additionally, the study reveals that market conditions can alter risk and opportunity spillover structures among G7 REITs, making assets considered safe in one market risky in another, especially during crises. We further explain how geopolitical risks and climate policy uncertainty drive crude oil returns and how they collectively influence G7 REITs' connectedness. To achieve this, we employed both causality-in-quantile and quantile regression techniques. We found that these factors have a heterogeneous impact on total connectedness across market conditions, samples, and quantiles, offering valuable insights for policymakers and investors.