Statistical analysis of TEC anomalies as earthquake precursors using GPS data for the case study of Assam, India

IF 2.8 3区地球科学 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS

Advances in Space Research Pub Date : 2025-02-15 DOI:10.1016/j.asr.2024.12.028

Timangshu Chetia, Saurabh Baruah, Santanu Baruah, Ashim Gogoi

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Abstract

In Northeast India, 17 earthquakes with Mw > 4.1 were recorded, with 14 of them preceded by significant anomalies in ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC). Probability analysis showed that if TEC anomalies exceed 2σ for over 16 days, there is an 80 % likelihood of an earthquake. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed a low R² (∼0.017) between hourly TEC and factors like Dst, Ap-Index, IMF-Bz, and F10.7. However, the models for hourly data were significant (p ∼2.08x10^-14). Hence, we used multiple regressions on daily data to identify hours when independent variables best explained TEC variability. The study aims to develop a model to determine the epicentral distance, precursory time, and magnitude of potential near-field earthquakes in the Tezpur (Eastern Himalaya) region, based on TEC anomaly peaks. However, Mw > 4.1 earthquakes may not always show TEC perturbations due to factors like geography, solar activity, and radon. The findings are thoroughly discussed in the manuscript.

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来源期刊

Advances in Space Research 地学天文-地球科学综合

CiteScore

5.20

自引率

11.50%

发文量

800

审稿时长

5.8 months

期刊介绍： The COSPAR publication Advances in Space Research (ASR) is an open journal covering all areas of space research including: space studies of the Earth''s surface, meteorology, climate, the Earth-Moon system, planets and small bodies of the solar system, upper atmospheres, ionospheres and magnetospheres of the Earth and planets including reference atmospheres, space plasmas in the solar system, astrophysics from space, materials sciences in space, fundamental physics in space, space debris, space weather, Earth observations of space phenomena, etc. NB: Please note that manuscripts related to life sciences as related to space are no more accepted for submission to Advances in Space Research. Such manuscripts should now be submitted to the new COSPAR Journal Life Sciences in Space Research (LSSR). All submissions are reviewed by two scientists in the field. COSPAR is an interdisciplinary scientific organization concerned with the progress of space research on an international scale. Operating under the rules of ICSU, COSPAR ignores political considerations and considers all questions solely from the scientific viewpoint.