Narratives for Positive Nature Futures in Europe.

Abstract

The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a novel approach for the development of positive scenarios centered on the relationship of nature and people, emphasizing biodiversity as part of the solution to environmental challenges across various spatial and temporal scales, explicitly addressing a plurality of values for nature. In this work, we describe the process that has led to the formulation of continental-scale positive narratives for conservation in Europe based on the NFF and its value perspectives (Nature for Nature; Nature for Society; Nature as Culture), through an expert group elicitation. We focused on 6 topics in the narratives: Nature Protection and Restoration; Forest Ecosystems; Freshwater Ecosystems; Urban Systems; Agriculture, and Energy. We analyze differences and similarities among the narratives across these topics. We develop three novel Nature Futures narratives for Europe with contrasting perspectives and priorities for the six topics. Within the EU socioeconomic trends and policy framework, common solutions that simultaneously tackle biodiversity conservation and instrumental and cultural Nature's Contributions to People (NCP) provision emerged. This set of narratives may integrate preferences concerning EU-level conservation targets and plausible socio-ecological development pathways, supporting the modeling of positive scenarios for nature that can be crucial in guiding policy decisions towards recovery of nature.