Mapping the Numbers of Dementia in Brazil: A Delphi Consensus Study

IF 3.6 3区医学 Q2 GERIATRICS & GERONTOLOGY

International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI:10.1002/gps.70055

Márlon Juliano Romero Aliberti, Claudia Kimie Suemoto, Jerson Laks, Paulo Caramelli, Sonia Maria Dozzi Brucki, Nicolas Farina, Daniel Apolinario, Einstein Francisco Camargos, Eleonora d'Orsi, Gilberto Sousa Alves, Karolina Gouveia César-Freitas, Luís Fernando Rangel, Márcia Lorena Fagundes Chaves, Marcos Antonio Lopes, Marcus Vinicius Della Coletta, Matheus Ghossain Barbosa, Norberto Anizio Ferreira Frota, Ricardo Nitrini, Cleusa Pinheiro Ferri

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Abstract

Objectives

As the global dementia crisis intensifies, especially in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), there is a pressing need for comprehensive prevalence data across diverse regions, including Brazil, where studies have been predominantly limited to affluent urban centers. This study aimed to conduct an expert consensus to determine the prevalence of all-cause dementia in Brazil, considering various age groups, sexes, and geographical areas.

Methods

A Delphi consensus process with clinical and academic experts from across Brazil was conducted to provide dementia prevalence estimates in people aged ≥ 60 years living throughout Brazil for 2019. Each round consisted of answering structured questionnaires that incorporated information from the literature. A priori criteria were used to ascertain the point in which consensus was achieved for > 70% of the 15 prevalence estimates—for (1) total, (2) women and men, and (3) the five Brazilian macro-regions. The current and projected dementia cases in Brazil were calculated based on age and sex population distributions.

Results

Fifteen experts, with a mean professional experience of 25 ± 10 years, reached a consensus in the fourth round. Experts agreed with a mean all-cause dementia prevalence of 8.5% among Brazilians aged ≥ 60 years, which comprised 2.46 million people in 2019 in this age. They reported higher dementia rates in women (9.1%) than men (7.7%); the highest total prevalence was in those over 80 where it exceeds 20%. Regional variations were also noted, with lower prevalence in the South (7.3%) and higher in the North (8.9%) and Northeast (10.1%). Projections estimate that considering Brazil’s rapidly aging population, dementia cases will rise to 8.89 million by 2060.

Conclusions

This Delphi study estimated that dementia already affects roughly 1 in 12 older Brazilians aged 60 and above, with slightly higher prevalence in women and significant geographical variations. These results underscore the urgency for targeted public health strategies in Brazil and offer a framework for similar challenges in other LMICs, especially given that dementia cases are projected to increase by approximately 3.6 times in 4 decades.

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绘制巴西痴呆症的数量：德尔菲共识研究

随着全球痴呆症危机的加剧，特别是在低收入和中等收入国家（LMICs），迫切需要收集包括巴西在内的不同地区的全面患病率数据，而巴西的研究主要局限于富裕的城市中心。本研究旨在进行专家共识，以确定巴西的全因痴呆患病率，考虑到不同的年龄组、性别和地理区域。方法与来自巴西各地的临床和学术专家进行德尔菲共识过程，以提供2019年巴西各地≥60岁人群的痴呆患病率估计。每一轮都包括回答包含文献信息的结构化问卷。使用先验标准来确定达成共识的点；15个流行率估计值的70%(1)总体，(2)女性和男性，以及(3)巴西5个宏观区域。巴西目前和预计的痴呆病例是根据年龄和性别人口分布计算的。结果第四轮专家15名，平均从业年限为25±10年。专家们一致认为，60岁以上的巴西人平均全因痴呆患病率为8.5%，2019年该年龄段的人数为246万人。他们报告说，女性的痴呆症发病率（9.1%）高于男性（7.7%）；80岁以上人群的总患病率最高，超过20%。还注意到区域差异，南部患病率较低（7.3%），北部患病率较高（8.9%），东北部患病率较高（10.1%）。据预测，考虑到巴西人口的快速老龄化，到2060年，痴呆症患者将增加到889万人。德尔菲研究估计，大约每12名60岁及以上的巴西老年人中就有1人患有痴呆症，女性患病率略高，地域差异显著。这些结果强调了巴西有针对性的公共卫生战略的紧迫性，并为其他中低收入国家的类似挑战提供了一个框架，特别是考虑到痴呆症病例预计将在40年内增加约3.6倍。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry 医学-精神病学

CiteScore

6.10

自引率

2.50%

发文量

168

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： The rapidly increasing world population of aged people has led to a growing need to focus attention on the problems of mental disorder in late life. The aim of the Journal is to communicate the results of original research in the causes, treatment and care of all forms of mental disorder which affect the elderly. The Journal is of interest to psychiatrists, psychologists, social scientists, nurses and others engaged in therapeutic professions, together with general neurobiological researchers. The Journal provides an international perspective on the important issue of geriatric psychiatry, and contributions are published from countries throughout the world. Topics covered include epidemiology of mental disorders in old age, clinical aetiological research, post-mortem pathological and neurochemical studies, treatment trials and evaluation of geriatric psychiatry services.