PDO Dynamics Shape the Fire Regime of Boreal Subarctic Landscapes in the Northwest Territories, Canada

Abstract

Spatially explicit reconstructions of fire activity in northwestern boreal Canada are rare, despite their importance for modeling current and future disturbance regimes and forest dynamics. We provide a dendrochronological reconstruction of historical fire activity along Highway 3 in the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, within the boreal subarctic zone. We dated 129 fires that occurred between 1202 and 2015 CE, using samples from 479 fire-scarred living and dead jack pine trees (Pinus banksiana Lamb.). Three distinct periods can be distinguished in terms of historical fire cycle (FC) and fire occurrence. Initially (1340–1440 CE), fire activity was low (FC = 572 years; 1 fire/decade), before increasing notably between 1460 and 1840 (FC = 171 years; 4.45 fires/decade), and even more in recent times (1860–2015 CE; FC = 95 years; 7.63 fires/decade). Climate has been an important factor controlling changes in fire frequency and FC in the NWT since the 1300s. The 1440s and 1850s correspond with periods of increased fire activity synchronized with shifts from negative to positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phases. Since the mid-1800s, human activities may have contributed to the increase in fire activity, but climate remained the leading factor. During the 20th century, years with increased area burned corresponded to periods with drier-than-average conditions associated with positive PDO, suggesting fire activity in the study region is still influenced by climate. Spatial teleconnection patterns among PDO, drought, and large fire years (LFYs) in the NWT reveal persistent relationships between ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns and fire activity. PDO dynamics hold strong potential for predicting regional fire hazards across northwestern North America.