Short-term resilience assessment of the global liner shipping network: A case study of COVID-19

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges to the global liner shipping network (GLSN), with disruptions at key ports severely affecting global trade flows. This study explores the short-term resilience of the GLSN during the pandemic using an innovative assessment method to evaluate the impact of various operational strategies and disruption scenarios on network recovery. The GLSN is firstly constructed based on the shipping routes data, while a comprehensive port scoring system is developed, incorporating both conventional performance metrics and pandemic-specific factors. Alternative shipping routes are then determined by applying the shortest path that satisfies port score gap thresholds and detour constraints, with a penalty factor introduced to weight routes that frequently use alternative ports. Finally, the resilience curve method is employed to assess the performance of GLSN under multi-node disruptions, enabling the calculation of the network's short-term resilience. A case study of the GLSN during the COVID-19 pandemic shows that moderately relaxing alternative port scoring thresholds significantly enhances recovery. A 20% increase in detour constraints is proven to be the most efficient and meaningful. Additionally, disruptions in East Asia have the greatest impact, making recovery strategies in this region crucial for global network resilience. These findings provide valuable insights for shipping companies and policymakers in developing more effective response and recovery strategies for similar future disruptions.