Sleeping Beauty and the demands of non‐ideal rationality

Noûs Pub Date : 2025-02-11 DOI:10.1111/nous.12545
Wolfgang Schwarz
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Abstract

If an agent can't live up to the demands of ideal rationality, fallback norms come into play that take into account the agent's limitations. A familiar human limitation is our tendency to lose information. How should we compensate for this tendency? The Seeping Beauty problem allows us to isolate this question, without the confounding influence of other human limitations. If the coin lands tails, Beauty can't preserve whatever information she has received on Monday: she is bound to violate the norms of ideal diachronic rationality. The considerations that support these norms, however, can still be used. I investigate how Beauty should update her beliefs so as to maximize the expected accuracy of her new beliefs. The investigation draws attention to important but neglected questions about the connection between rational belief and evidential support, about the status of ideal and non‐ideal norms, about the dependence of epistemic norms on descriptive facts, and about the precise formulation of expected accuracy measures. It also sheds light on the puzzle of higher‐order evidence.
睡美人与非理想理性的要求
如果一个行为人不能达到理想理性的要求,考虑到行为人的局限性的后备规范就会发挥作用。一个常见的人类缺陷是我们容易丢失信息。我们应该如何弥补这种趋势呢?“渗水美女”问题让我们把这个问题孤立起来,而不受其他人类局限性的混淆影响。如果硬币落在反面,美女就不能保留她在周一收到的任何信息:她必然会违反理想的时理性规范。但是,仍然可以使用支持这些规范的考虑因素。我研究了美女应该如何更新她的信念,以最大限度地提高她的新信念的预期准确性。这项调查引起了人们对一些重要但被忽视的问题的关注,如理性信念和证据支持之间的联系、理想规范和非理想规范的地位、认知规范对描述性事实的依赖,以及预期准确性测量的精确表述。它还揭示了高阶证据之谜。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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