Modelling the Epidemiological Impact of Different Adult Pneumococcal Vaccination Strategies in the United Kingdom.

IF 4.7 3区 医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Infectious Diseases and Therapy Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-11 DOI:10.1007/s40121-025-01111-8
Rachel J Oidtman, Giulio Meleleo, Oluwaseun Sharomi, Ian R Matthews, Dionysios Ntais, Robert B Nachbar, Tufail M Malik, Kevin M Bakker
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Introduction: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) were first introduced in the paediatric United Kingdom (UK) immunisation programme in 2006 which led to significant declines in invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) caused by targeted serotypes. Although paediatric PCVs provide some indirect protection to adults, a significant IPD burden remains in older adults. Here, we compared three adult (65+ years-old) and risk group (2-64-year-old) vaccination scenarios, namely a continuation of the status quo with PPSV23 vaccination, using the recently licensed-in-adults PCV20, or using the new adult-focused 21-valent PCV, V116.

Methods: A population-level compartmental dynamic transmission model (DTM) was adapted to the UK setting. The model described Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage transmission dynamics and disease progression in the presence of age- and serotype-specific pneumococcal vaccines. We calibrated the DTM to age- and serotype-specific IPD data in the UK and used the model to make projections under the different adult vaccination scenarios while keeping PCV13 immunisation in children.

Results: The calibrated model yielded reasonable parameter values and model fits that closely matched observed IPD dynamics. Among 65+ year-olds, 10-year model projections predicted that the routine use of V116 would reduce IPD incidence by 15.5%, while PCV20 would reduce IPD incidence by 8.9% and the continued use of PPSV23 would increase incidence by 3.83%. There was a notable decrease in IPD incidence in the serotypes unique to V116. In the serotypes included in PCV20 but not V116, the model did not predict a resurgence of IPD.

Conclusions: Projections revealed that in adults, V116 led to significantly greater reductions in IPD in the 65+ year-old population compared with PCV20 or PPSV23.

模拟英国不同成人肺炎球菌疫苗接种策略的流行病学影响。
肺炎球菌结合疫苗(PCVs)于2006年首次引入英国儿科免疫规划,导致由目标血清型引起的侵袭性肺炎球菌疾病(IPD)显著下降。尽管儿科pcv为成人提供了一些间接保护,但老年人仍然是IPD的重要负担。在这里,我们比较了三种成人(65岁以上)和风险组(2-64岁)的疫苗接种情况,即继续接种PPSV23疫苗,使用最近获得许可的成人PCV20,或使用新的成人重点21价PCV V116。方法:种群水平的区隔动态传播模型(DTM)适用于英国环境。该模型描述了年龄和血清型特异性肺炎球菌疫苗存在的肺炎链球菌携带传播动力学和疾病进展。我们将DTM校准为英国年龄和血清型特异性IPD数据,并使用该模型在不同成人疫苗接种方案下进行预测,同时保持儿童的PCV13免疫接种。结果:校正后的模型参数值合理,模型拟合与观察到的IPD动力学非常吻合。在65岁以上的人群中,10年模型预测,常规使用V116可使IPD发病率降低15.5%,而PCV20可使IPD发病率降低8.9%,继续使用PPSV23可使IPD发病率增加3.83%。在V116特有的血清型中,IPD发病率显著降低。在PCV20而不是V116的血清型中,该模型没有预测IPD的死灰复燃。结论:预测显示,在成人中,与PCV20或PPSV23相比,V116可显著降低65岁以上人群的IPD。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Infectious Diseases and Therapy
Infectious Diseases and Therapy Medicine-Microbiology (medical)
CiteScore
8.60
自引率
1.90%
发文量
136
审稿时长
6 weeks
期刊介绍: Infectious Diseases and Therapy is an international, open access, peer-reviewed, rapid publication journal dedicated to the publication of high-quality clinical (all phases), observational, real-world, and health outcomes research around the discovery, development, and use of infectious disease therapies and interventions, including vaccines and devices. Studies relating to diagnostic products and diagnosis, pharmacoeconomics, public health, epidemiology, quality of life, and patient care, management, and education are also encouraged. Areas of focus include, but are not limited to, bacterial and fungal infections, viral infections (including HIV/AIDS and hepatitis), parasitological diseases, tuberculosis and other mycobacterial diseases, vaccinations and other interventions, and drug-resistance, chronic infections, epidemiology and tropical, emergent, pediatric, dermal and sexually-transmitted diseases.
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