Geopolitical uncertainty and shipping stock returns: An event study of the Israel-Hamas conflict

IF 5.7 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Transport Geography Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104122

Mutaju Isaack Marobhe , Jonathan Mukiza Kansheba , Ziaul Haque Munim

{"title":"Geopolitical uncertainty and shipping stock returns: An event study of the Israel-Hamas conflict","authors":"Mutaju Isaack Marobhe , Jonathan Mukiza Kansheba , Ziaul Haque Munim","doi":"10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104122","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article investigates the impact of the Israeli-Hamas conflict on maritime sector stocks using an event study approach, highlighting the sector's vulnerability during crises. Analyzing 32 companies across container, tanker, and dry bulk sub-sectors, we employ the Fama and French three-factor model to assess how maritime stocks respond to conflict-related news. Our findings reveal predominantly adverse stock reactions, particularly in the container and tanker segments, with the dry bulk sub-sector less affected. Notably, container shipping stocks showed significant declines following missile attacks on cargo vessels. Conversely, the market response to positive news, such as a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, was muted, suggesting that good news impacts trading behaviour less than bad news. This study underscores the importance of monitoring news during major crises for theoretical and practical implications in the maritime industry, as it significantly influences stock performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48413,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Transport Geography","volume":"123 ","pages":"Article 104122"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7000,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Transport Geography","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692325000134","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This article investigates the impact of the Israeli-Hamas conflict on maritime sector stocks using an event study approach, highlighting the sector's vulnerability during crises. Analyzing 32 companies across container, tanker, and dry bulk sub-sectors, we employ the Fama and French three-factor model to assess how maritime stocks respond to conflict-related news. Our findings reveal predominantly adverse stock reactions, particularly in the container and tanker segments, with the dry bulk sub-sector less affected. Notably, container shipping stocks showed significant declines following missile attacks on cargo vessels. Conversely, the market response to positive news, such as a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, was muted, suggesting that good news impacts trading behaviour less than bad news. This study underscores the importance of monitoring news during major crises for theoretical and practical implications in the maritime industry, as it significantly influences stock performance.

查看原文本刊更多论文

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Journal of Transport Geography Multiple-

CiteScore

11.50

自引率

11.50%

发文量

197

期刊介绍： A major resurgence has occurred in transport geography in the wake of political and policy changes, huge transport infrastructure projects and responses to urban traffic congestion. The Journal of Transport Geography provides a central focus for developments in this rapidly expanding sub-discipline.