Vote early and vote often? Detecting electoral fraud from the timing of 19th century elections

IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Francesco Ferlenga , Brian Knight
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper develops a new approach to detecting electoral fraud. Our context involves repeaters, individuals voting in multiple states in the U.S. during 19th Century Congressional Elections. Given high travel times, and the associated difficulties of voting in multiple states on the same day, we exploit the staggered introduction of holding federal elections on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November (1T1M). The key finding is that county-level turnout rates fell when the closest neighboring state coordinated on 1T1M. This result is consistent with 1T1M adoption making repeating more difficult. In terms of mechanisms, the pattern is stronger in states that had not yet adopted the secret ballot, consistent with the secret ballot itself reducing voter fraud. The results are also stronger in open-seat elections, which tend to be more competitive. Finally, the pattern is also driven by smaller population counties, consistent with repeaters particularly inflating turnout rates in these places.
提前投票和经常投票?从19世纪的选举中发现选举舞弊
本文提出了一种检测选举舞弊的新方法。我们的背景涉及到中继者,即19世纪国会选举期间在美国多个州投票的个人。考虑到旅行时间长,以及在同一天在多个州投票的相关困难,我们利用了在11月第一个星期一之后的第一个星期二举行联邦选举的交错引入(1T1M)。关键的发现是,当最接近的相邻州协调1T1M时,县级投票率下降。这个结果与采用1T1M使重复变得更加困难一致。在机制方面,这种模式在尚未采用无记名投票的州更为明显,这与无记名投票本身减少了选民欺诈相一致。在竞争更激烈的公开席位选举中,结果也更为明显。最后,这种模式也是由人口较少的县驱动的,这与重复者在这些地方特别膨胀的投票率相一致。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
14.10
自引率
2.00%
发文量
139
审稿时长
70 days
期刊介绍: The Journal of Public Economics aims to promote original scientific research in the field of public economics, focusing on the utilization of contemporary economic theory and quantitative analysis methodologies. It serves as a platform for the international scholarly community to engage in discussions on public policy matters.
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