Location models to improve health and safety at a major temporary city: The case of the Hajj

Abstract

This paper investigates the optimal locations of health service facilities during the Hajj, a major temporary city event in Mina, Saudi Arabia, attended by millions of pilgrims. Given the logistical challenges and historical accident risks during this dense gathering, effective placement of health facilities is crucial for ensuring pilgrim safety and accessibility to services. The study first employs location-allocation models (LAM) within a network GIS framework to determine optimal facility locations based on both static and dynamic population distributions of pilgrims throughout the day. These models facilitate the strategic placement of services closer to pilgrim activities, potentially enhancing service accessibility and reducing travel times for medical assistance. Additionally, agent-based modelling (ABM) complements the LAM by simulating crowd movements and interactions, helping identify high-risk areas for congestion and accidents. This dynamic approach offers insights into crowd behavior under various scenarios, including different times of day and road closure impacts, thereby supporting more responsive urban planning and crowd management strategies. Recommendations for policy include the use of portable health facilities and the strategic placement of services to accommodate shifting crowd densities.