Short-term photovoltaic power prediction with CPO-BILSTM based on quadratic decomposition

IF 3.3 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC

Electric Power Systems Research Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI:10.1016/j.epsr.2025.111511

Jinjiang Zhang , Tianle Sun , Xiaolong Guo , Min Lu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

To address the challenges of volatility and unpredictability in photovoltaic (PV) power, a short-term combined prediction model named EMD-VMD-CPO-BILSTM is proposed. The process begins with the selection of a similar day using the K-means algorithm, followed by the decomposition of historical PV power data into several signal components. The Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method is employed to denoise the signal, and the residual signal is further decomposed using Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) to minimize mode aliasing and improve accuracy. Subsequently, the parameters of the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BILSTM) model are optimized using the Crested Porcupine Optimization (CPO) algorithm. The optimized BILSTM model is subsequently applied to power prediction. The experiment was conducted using observation data from the Australian Desert Knowledge (DKA) Solar Energy Centre, located in Australia. The numerical outcomes demonstrate that the proposed EMD-VMD-CPO-BILSTM model reduces mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) by 6.67 % and 3.76 %, respectively.

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来源期刊

Electric Power Systems Research 工程技术-工程：电子与电气

CiteScore

7.50

自引率

17.90%

发文量

963

审稿时长

3.8 months

期刊介绍： Electric Power Systems Research is an international medium for the publication of original papers concerned with the generation, transmission, distribution and utilization of electrical energy. The journal aims at presenting important results of work in this field, whether in the form of applied research, development of new procedures or components, orginal application of existing knowledge or new designapproaches. The scope of Electric Power Systems Research is broad, encompassing all aspects of electric power systems. The following list of topics is not intended to be exhaustive, but rather to indicate topics that fall within the journal purview. • Generation techniques ranging from advances in conventional electromechanical methods, through nuclear power generation, to renewable energy generation. • Transmission, spanning the broad area from UHV (ac and dc) to network operation and protection, line routing and design. • Substation work: equipment design, protection and control systems. • Distribution techniques, equipment development, and smart grids. • The utilization area from energy efficiency to distributed load levelling techniques. • Systems studies including control techniques, planning, optimization methods, stability, security assessment and insulation coordination.