Dynamic evolution and driving factors of the coupling relationship of green transformation system in 26 mountainous counties in Zhejiang Province, China.

Abstract

Understanding the coordinated transformation of green ecological-living-production space is an important task for 26 mountainous counties of Zhejiang Province to achieve leapfrog high-quality development. Following the framework of ecological-living-production space, we analyzed the dynamics and driving factors of the coupling transformation of the ecological-living-production system in 26 mountainous counties from 2010 to 2021, based on coupling coordination model, kernel density estimation, spatial Markov chain model and optimal parameter geodetector model. The results showed that, the coupling coordination degree of the green transformation of the ecological-living-production system had significantly increased, and the gap among counties had shown an evolutionary trend of stepwise narrowing. In 2016, there was a polarization phenomenon. The coupling coordination degree of the green transformation of the ecological-living-production system presented a spatial pattern of "high in the east and low in the west, high in the north and low in the south". The spatial directivity characteristics were gradually obvious, while the spatial structure evolution showed the characteristics of collaborative response. There was an obvious "club convergence" phenomenon in the coordinated transformation of the ecological-living-production, and each convergence club had strong stability. It was difficult for the coupling coordination type to achieve leap-forward transfer in adjacent years, and there were still "path dependence" and self-enhancement "lock-in effect". The spatial lag factor had a greater influence on the type of coupling coordination. The counties with higher coupling coordination degree had a greater probability of driving the neighboring counties to move upward, whereas the counties with low coupling coordination degree may inhibit the improvement of the coupling coordination degree of the surrounding counties. The coordinated transformation of the ecological-living-production system in 2010, 2015, and 2021 was driven by the progress of social civilization, opening up and economic development, economic development and scientific and technological development, respectively. Our results had important supporting value for the green transformation of collaborative regional ecological, living, and production spaces.