Risk analysis and eco-design strategies for critical mineral resources in China's vehicle electrification process

IF 11.2 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL

Resources Conservation and Recycling Pub Date : 2025-02-11 DOI:10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108156

Xin Sun , Fufu Wang , Peng Wang , Lu Sun , Mingnan Zhao , Xianhui Jiao , Jianxin Li , Zhipeng Li , Yong Geng , Dongchang Zhao

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

China's rapid transition to vehicle electrification significantly increases the demand for critical minerals, thereby exacerbating supply risks. This study focuses on China's new energy vehicles, as well as the 3C battery (lithium-ion batteries utilized in devices such as computers, communication equipment, and consumer electronics) and stainless steel industries, which involve critical metal resources. It sets up three scenarios to analyze future resource supply and demand risks, and develops eco-strategies to mitigate these risks. Results reveal that under the stated policy, medium-electrification, and deep-electrification scenarios, lithium demand is projected to reach 1,083.52 LCE (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent) kilotons (kt), 1,108.63 LCE kt, and 1,190.77 LCE kt, respectively. Nickel demand is estimated at 3,221.29 kt, 3,240.82 kt, and 3,272.90 kt, while cobalt demand is forecasted at 218.21 kt, 220.66 kt, and 224.69 kt in 2040. Before 2040, the external dependence on lithium, nickel, and cobalt consistently exceeds 40 %. Moreover, there is a risk of demand outpacing supply for lithium and cobalt by 2037 and 2027, respectively. Advancements in battery technologies, increased energy density, and enhanced metal recovery processes are essential to mitigating these supply risks.

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来源期刊

Resources Conservation and Recycling 环境科学-工程：环境

CiteScore

22.90

自引率

6.10%

发文量

625

审稿时长

23 days

期刊介绍： The journal Resources, Conservation & Recycling welcomes contributions from research, which consider sustainable management and conservation of resources. The journal prioritizes understanding the transformation processes crucial for transitioning toward more sustainable production and consumption systems. It highlights technological, economic, institutional, and policy aspects related to specific resource management practices such as conservation, recycling, and resource substitution, as well as broader strategies like improving resource productivity and restructuring production and consumption patterns. Contributions may address regional, national, or international scales and can range from individual resources or technologies to entire sectors or systems. Authors are encouraged to explore scientific and methodological issues alongside practical, environmental, and economic implications. However, manuscripts focusing solely on laboratory experiments without discussing their broader implications will not be considered for publication in the journal.