A hybrid decision support system for transport policy selection: A case study on Russia's Northern Sea route in Artic region

Abstract

The selection of transport policies by countries is critical both for international relations and for the implementation of effective and sustainable transport practices. Countries consider numerous parameters when deciding on transport policies. This study aims to develop a Decision Support System (DSS) to assist countries in selecting transport policies and to demonstrate its applicability. The primary motivation of the research is to identify transport policies for Russia's Arctic region and to determine the best alternative policy based on expert evaluations. For this purpose, the IF-SIWEC-ARLON (Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets - Simple Weight Calculation - Alternative Ranking Using Two-Step Logarithmic Normalization) hybrid method was developed as a DSS in this study. To implement this hybrid method, a decision model incorporating experts, criteria, and transport policies was first established. The contribution levels of experts to the decision-making process were calculated using IF sets. Next, the criteria weights were determined using the IF-SIWEC approach. Finally, the ranking of transport policies was carried out using the IF-ARLON method. An algorithm representing the application of this hybrid method was developed and applied to a case study focusing on Russia's transport policy selection process of Northern Sea Route (NSR) in the Arctic region. The results supported the successful application of the IF-SIWEC-ARLON hybrid method. Its robustness was tested through sensitivity analysis scenarios, while the consistency of the findings was verified via comparative analyses. The study concluded that the best transport policy for Russia's Arctic region is "Improved regulatory control with strategic international partnerships", with the most influential criterion in the decision process identified as "State interests, security, and sovereignty.".