Determinants of bilateral trade between Egypt and BRICS: Gravity model with traditional econometrics and machine learning algorithms

IF 1.7 4区综合性期刊 Q2 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

Journal of Radiation Research and Applied Sciences Pub Date : 2025-02-09 DOI:10.1016/j.jrras.2025.101342

Mohamed F. Abd El-Aal , Mansour Shrahili , Mohamed Kayid , Oluwafemi Samson Balogun

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Purpose

This paper explores the factors influencing bilateral trade between Egypt and BRICS by employing classic econometric techniques and machine learning methods, specifically Poisson Newton-Raphson, gradient boosting (GB), and random forest (RF).

Design/methodology/

The investigation utilizes traditional econometric analysis (Poisson Newton-Raphson) to explore the correlation between trade volume and various factors. Machine learning algorithms (GB and RF) also rank significant independent variables affecting the dependent variable (trade volume). The study leverages diverse factors, including population size, industry value added, GDP per capita, gross fixed capital formation, geographical distance, GDP growth, and global GDP expansion.

Findings

The Poisson Newton-Raphson analysis shows an inverse correlation between trade volume and several factors, including the population size, industry value added, GDP per capita of BRICS nations, Egypt's gross fixed capital formation, and geographical distance. In contrast, positive correlations exist with Egypt's GDP per capita, industry value added, BRICS gross fixed capital formation, GDP growth, and overall global GDP expansion. The analysis also highlights the most significant factors in machine learning outcomes, identifying BRICS GDP size, global GDP size, and the distance between countries as the top influences.

Research implications

The findings underscore the significance of fundamental variables in the basic gravity model, emphasizing the crucial role of global GDP size as the second most influential contributor. Furthermore, the study highlights the importance of productive sectors in shaping local outputs, providing insights into trade relationships' competitive or complementary nature. These implications contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the multifaceted determinants shaping trade flows between Egypt and BRICS nations.

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来源期刊

Journal of Radiation Research and Applied Sciences MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES-

自引率

5.90%

发文量

130

审稿时长

16 weeks

期刊介绍： Journal of Radiation Research and Applied Sciences provides a high quality medium for the publication of substantial, original and scientific and technological papers on the development and applications of nuclear, radiation and isotopes in biology, medicine, drugs, biochemistry, microbiology, agriculture, entomology, food technology, chemistry, physics, solid states, engineering, environmental and applied sciences.