Trends in the Burden of Epilepsy in China from 1990 to 2021 and Its Forecast until 2044: Based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study.

Abstract

Background: Epilepsy is one of the most prevalent neurological disorders, but no updated analysis of its burden in China.

Aims: This study provides the most up-to-date, comprehensive analysis of temporal trends and predicts future trends of idiopathic epilepsy in China.

Design: Secondary analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD).

Methods: GBD 2021 data were analyzed to estimate the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) of epilepsy in China across different genders, age groups, and years. Joinpoint regression and decomposition analysis assessed temporal changes and the contributions of aging, population growth, and epidemiological changes to disease trends. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict age-standardized rates (ASRs) per 100,000 individuals until 2044.

Results: In 2021, the ASRs of incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs for epilepsy in China were 28.2 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 19.0-37.9), 214.7 (150.1-278.6), 0.8 (0.7-1.0), and 101.4 (72.5-139.4) per 100,000 population, respectively. The incidence and prevalence rates were 26.1% and 13.4% higher than those in 1990, while deaths and DALYs decreased by 56.6% and 43.2%, respectively, compared to 1990. The highest burden was seen in the youngest and older adults, with men more affected than women. Predictions indicate rising incidence and prevalence rates by 2044, alongside declining mortality and disability rates.

Conclusion: Epilepsy poses a significant health burden in China, with increasing incidence and prevalence from 1990 to 2021, and projections indicating a continued rise through 2044. The disease burden also varies across genders, age groups, and time periods.