Future projections of climate variables and meteorological drought: Insight from CMIP6 models in Southeast Ethiopia

Abstract

Climate change has profound effects on precipitation, temperature, and meteorological drought patterns. This study addressed the knowledge gap regarding the future impacts of climate change on these variables in the Arsi Zone, Southeast Ethiopia. By utilizing data simulation from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase six (CMIP6) under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5), future climatic conditions were projected. The quantile mapping (QM) bias correction technique was implemented in R to improve reliability. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall method and the standardized precipitation index (SPI-3) were employed for the climate variables trend analysis and to estimate drought characteristics, respectively. The findings of this study indicated an increasing trend in future precipitation and maximum temperature across both socioeconomic pathway scenarios from 2020 to 2100, with a more pronounced increase under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. The drought duration, severity, and intensity were also projected to increase from 1985–2014–2020–2049 under both scenarios. The intensity increased by 0.26 and 0.15 under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5, respectively; however, these values exhibited different trends in the two scenarios from 2020 to 2049–2080–2100. The SSP2–4.5 scenario suggested more frequent drought events, requiring specific strategies for water resource management. However, the SSP5–8.5 scenario exhibited variability in drought projections. As conclusion, there is a need for specific strategies to address the more frequent drought events projected under the SSP2–4.5 scenario, whereas the SSP5–8.5 scenario requires adaptable strategies due to the variable frequencies and it underlines the urgent need for comprehensive adaptation and mitigation strategies.