Assessing the impact of climate change on the optimal solar–wind hybrid power generation potential in China: A focus on stability and complementarity

Abstract

One of the greatest challenges facing humanity today is adapting to climate change and global warming. To mitigate the impact of climate change, an increasing number of countries have committed to transforming their energy systems into zero–emissions systems. Decarbonizing electricity via wind and solar power generation is crucial for China to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. This study used global climate models to evaluate the impact of climate change on the complementarity, stability, and hybrid power generation potential of wind and solar energy in China in the mid-term (2041–2070) and long–term (2071–2100) under the SSP245 and SSP585 pathways, including calculating the optimal installation ratio. The results revealed that the optimal wind/solar installation ratio in China varies mainly between 0:1 and 0.4:1. The area with optimal complementarity accounts for approximately 19 % of the total area. Climate change is projected to decrease in solar energy resource stability in most northern regions and increase it in southern regions (±10 % to ±20 %). Regarding wind energy, increased stability occurs mainly in Northwest, Central, and East China, with long-term reductions in the coefficient of variation reaching up to 32 %. Under both scenarios, regions with greater power generation potential occur in Southwest and Northwest whereas the potential is lower in the Northeast, Inner Mongolia, and eastern Xinjiang. Under the SSP585 scenario, the long-term future power generation potential ranges from −11.76 % to 11.39 %. This study helps optimize the use of solar and wind energy and provides early warnings for renewable energy development in China to address climate change.