Compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes on coexistence of oasis-desert ecosystems: Prioritizing resilient decision-making for a riskier world

Abstract

Water-salt balance is critical for the stable coexistence of salt-affected and groundwater-fed oasis-desert ecosystems. Yet, a comprehensive investigation of how soil salinization and groundwater degradation threaten the coexistence of oasis-desert ecosystems is still scarce, especially under the compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes. Here, we assessed the impacts of irrigated agriculture on hydrological regimes in oasis-desert systems, investigated the spatio-temporal variations of soil salinization in irrigated cropland, and evaluated the implications of the interplays of soil salinization and groundwater degradation on the coexistence of oasis-desert ecosystems in northwestern China, based on meaningful modelling approaches and comprehensive measurements over 1995–2020. The results showed that the irrigation return flow coefficient decreased sharply from 0.21 ± 0.09 in the traditional irrigation period to 0.09 ± 0.01 in the water-saving irrigation period. The continuous drop in groundwater tables and significant degradation of groundwater quality are occurring throughout this watershed. The eco-environmental flows are reaching to their limit with watershed closures (i.e., the drainage from the oasis region into the desert region is being weakened or even eliminated), although these progressions were largely hidden by regional precipitation and streamflow variability. The process of salt migration and accumulation across different landscapes in oasis-desert system is being reshaped, and soil salinization in water-saving agricultural irrigated lands is accelerating with a regional average annual growth rate of 18%. The vegetation in this watershed is degrading, and anthropogenic disturbance accelerates this trend. Our results highlight that environmental stress adaptation strategies must account for resilience maintenance to avoid accelerating catastrophic transitions in oasis-desert ecosystems. Determining the optimal oasis scales and formulating the best irrigation management plans are effective and resilient decision-making ways to maintain the coexistence relationship of oasis-desert ecosystem in drylands.